Cubs vs. Reds Odds
| Cubs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-134 | 9 -118 / -104 | -1.5 +122 |
| Reds Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+114 | 9 -118 / -104 | +1.5 -146 |
Great American Ballpark has always been known as a hitter's park, but it was very apparent in the opening game of this series as the Cubs and Reds traded homers on the way to a final score of 7-6, Reds. In game two of the series, it could work against Cincinnati.
After being a swing man in his first full season in Cincinnati, Luis Cessa earned the final spot in the rotation and will be getting the ball today. While he put together some solid outings this spring, his track record tempers expectations for this outing.
Opposing him will be Hayden Wesneski. Much like his counterpart, Wesneski also earned the final spot in his team's rotation with an impressive spring. However, the 25-year-old righty was solid after being called up in 2022 and should pick up where he left off this season.
So with a few unheralded starters going, can the Cubs even up the series? Let's take a closer look to find out.
Chicago Cubs
If you're the Cubs brass, you have to be happy with what you're seeing so far offensively. Chicago made a big splash in the free-agent market by signing Dansby Swanson, and he has been scolding the ball thus far.
The same can be said for Eric Hosmer, as he's hit the ball very hard. If he can get the ball in the air, his level of contact will create results on the scoreboard.
In addition to those two, there is plenty of upside in this lineup. Cody Bellinger got his first hit and home run of the season Monday, Nico Hoerner is due for positive regression, and Ian Happ continues to be one the most underrated hitters in baseball.
Tonight they get to face Cessa, who may have impressed this spring but could be in for some immediate regression. Despite becoming a sinker-slider guy in 2022, he was hit hard.
Cessa was in the bottom 20 percent of the league in average exit velocity, hard-hit, and barrel rates. His issue is that he has a ground ball pitcher arsenal and has not produced ground balls at a high enough rate.
That points to command issues, which means his sinker is up and flattening out. His sinker had a BAA of .313 last season, so if Cessa cannot throw his slider for strikes, the Cubs could put up some crooked numbers early on.
Cincinnati Reds
The Reds have plenty of young offensive pieces that make this team fun to watch, but their quality of contact is not inspiring confidence thus far. Jason Vosler is the only player with an average exit velocity above 90 mph, and even the four hitters with high XBAs have not hit the ball very hard.
This lineup will get to face Wesneski, who was very impressive in his few starts last season and upped his strikeout rate this spring. Wesneski is not a guy who will overpower hitters, but his arsenal has already proven to be highly effective.
He dominated hitters last season with his sweeper. It had a 33.8% whiff rate and a BAA of .119. We'll see him pair the sweeper with a sinker and four-seamer to righties, but then he will feature a cutter and change up to lefties.
Wesneski is a pitcher many have pegged to breakout this season, and we will see just how good he is in this outing.
Cubs vs. Reds Betting Pick
While the Reds were able to bash their way to a win on Monday, they are at a significant pitching disadvantage tonight. Wesneski has the arsenal to contain the Reds lineup at a minimum.
On the other side, I'm expecting Cessa to regress from his good spring. He has not proven that he can locate effectively enough to utilize his arsenal. That will lead to plenty of loud contact from this Cubs lineup.
Leave the bullpens out of this and take the Cubs in the first five.
Pick: Cubs F5 Moneyline |
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