Cubs vs Reds Odds | Wednesday MLB Predictions (7/31)
Photo by Kirk Irwin/Getty Images. Pictured: Nick Lodolo (Reds)
Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds Odds
| Cubs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
+125 | 9.5 -110o / -110u | +1.5 -155 |
| Reds Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
-150 | 9.5 -110o / -110u | -1.5 +125 |
The Chicago Cubs and Cincinnati Reds will face off on Wednesday in the final game of a three-game set. The Reds have taken the first two games of this series at Great American Ball Park handily and will be going for the sweep tonight.
These two teams are both at the bottom of the NL Central standings. Cincinnati sold off some pieces at the deadline as it's thrown in the white flag. The Reds are 52-55 and sit nine games out of the division lead and five out of the NL wild-card race.
Chicago is now 51-58, 11 games out of the division and seven out of the wild card as its postseason hopes are dwindling.
Cubs vs Reds odds for Wednesday have the Reds as -150 moneyline favorites with an over/under of 9.5 (-110/-110). Find my Wednesday MLB prediction in my Cubs vs Reds preview below.
Chicago Cubs
Kyle Hendricks will get the start for Chicago on Wednesday. The 34-year-old right-hander has a 6.95 ERA on the season but a 5.14 xERA and 4.61 SIERA. Hendricks has struggled to keep runners on base with a 59.6% strand rate, which is the worst of his career.
He's also been plagued by the highest HR/FB ratio of his career at 17.8% and a BABIP against him of .316.
With numbers like this, you would expect that Hendricks has allowed a ton of quality contact, but that hasn’t been the case, as he ranks in the 97th percentile in average exit velocity allowed, 84th percentile in hard-hit rate and 60th percentile in barrel rate.
Hendricks has always been a heavy ground ball pitcher, and this year has been no different. He ranks in the 61st percentile in ground ball rate. He's only in the seventh percentile in strikeout rate but the 68th percentile in walk rate.
Hendricks hasn’t been good this season by any means, but I do believe he's been unlucky. His contact quality rates indicate to me that his HR/FB ratio, strand rate and BABIP should fall back in line with what he's been over the last couple of seasons, which is closer to a high fours ERA rather than one approaching 7.00.
The Cubs’ offense ranks 21st in wRC+, 23rd in wOBA, 24th in SLG, 19th in OBP and 22nd in ISO. They walk at the sixth-highest rate but also strike out at the 10th-highest rate.
The Cubs rank 20th in hard-hit rate, 14th in barrel rate and 18th in exit velocity. Since Chicago doesn’t hit the ball hard overall, it's 17th in both xwOBA and xwOBACON as a slightly below-average offense.
Cincinnati Reds
Nick Lodolo has pitched fairly well for the Reds this season. The 26-year-old has a 3.45 ERA and a 3.47 xERA on the year. The left-hander has a 73rd-percentile whiff rate, 66th-percentile strikeout rate and 68th-percentile walk rate.
Lodolo has a 75th-percentile ground ball rate, which helps with his slightly below-average contact metrics. He ranks in the 51st percentile in barrel rate, 46th percentile in hard-hit rate and 45th percentile in average exit velocity.
The Reds rank 26th in wRC+ and 20th in wOBA this season. They're 23rd in OBP, 18th in SLG and 10th in ISO, as playing in Great American Ballpark helps them out with their power numbers. They're league average in walk rate but strike out the fifth-most in the MLB.
Cincinnati ranks 29th in hard-hit rate, 20th in barrel rate and 30th in exit velocity. It's second in pull rate but still just 23rd in xwOBACON and 27th in xwOBA.
This is one of the weaker offenses in the league overall.
Cubs vs. Reds
Betting Pick & Prediction
Lodolo is having a strong season, and I think that he can continue it against the Cubs tonight.
Hendricks has been largely terrible in 2024, but his underlying numbers don’t make me think much has changed in his overall profile, and I’d expect him to be fine going forward.
Neither offense is above average, and even with the positive park factor adjustment, I just can’t quite get to this total with this pitching matchup.
I like taking the under here for either the full game or the first five innings as I believe this game will end up being lower scoring than the market expects.
Pick: Under 9.5 Total Runs (-115 at BetMGM, Bet to -120)
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