Cubs vs. Rockies Odds
| Cubs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-170 | 11.5 -115 / -105 | -1.5 -192 |
| Rockies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+142 | 11.5 -115 / -105 | +1.5 +160 |
The third and final game of this series gets underway Wednesday with the NL West's Colorado Rockies hosting the NL Central's Chicago Cubs.
These teams split the first two matchups of this series, with Chicago winning the opener, 5-4, and Colorado responding with Tuesday's 6-4 victory.
Will the Cubs take advantage of facing a last-place team while staring down the barrel of a pivotal playoff race, or can the Rockies defend their home diamond once again?
Here's a look at the odds and my Cubs vs. Rockies betting pick and prediction.
Chicago Cubs
Chicago has put together a tremendous second half of the season and holds a two-game advantage over the ArizonaDiamondbacks for the second NL Wild Card spot. The Cubs' hitting has been their primary reason for this success as they rank in the top half of the league in runs scored per game, hits per game, BA, SLG, OPS and home runs.
This lineup has also done a tremendous job at avoiding strikeouts, ranking 10th in K% when facing left-handed pitching since July 1. You have guys in this lineup like Cody Bellinger, Nico Hoerner, Nick Madrigal and Yan Gomes – all of whom possess a K% of 19% or lower this year.
They should be able to do a good job at avoiding the punchout once again in this contest, especially against left-hander Ty Blach. Through 43 career plate appearances against Blach, this current Chicago lineup possesses a mere 9.3 K% and 11.9 Whiff%.
Colorado Rockies
It has been a difficult campaign for Blach, a left-handed Denver native. Pitching from both the bullpen and rotation this season, he possesses a 4.58 ERA and 1.51 WHIP through 16 appearances.
His underlying metrics are among the worst in baseball and suggest that further regression is looming. Entering this matchup, he ranks in the third percentile or lower in xERA, xBA and fastball velocity.
He also ranks in the second percentile or lower in both K% and Whiff%, and that is the avenue in which we will fade Blach in this contest. Currently, you can find his strikeout prop at 2.5 at DraftKings, a number he has failed to surpass in six of his past nine starts.
Cubs vs. Rockies
Betting Pick & Prediction
These strikeout woes are likely to continue against a thriving Cubs lineup. Through three career starts against Chicago, Blach possesses a fade-worthy 5.29 ERA, 1.59 WHIP and 4.76 K/9.
Add in the variables of hitter-friendly Coors Field, a strong Chicago lineup with a lot to play for, and poor metrics across the board for Blach, and we have a recipe for a quick outing/low strikeout performance. I would be extremely shocked if the market moves this number to two because of the buy-back implications, but if it does, I would rather lay more juice at 2.5 than take the Under at two.
