Cubs vs White Sox Odds
| Cubs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
| -110 | 9 -115 / -105 | -1.5 +145 |
| White Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
| -110 | 9 -115 / -105 | +1.5 -165 |
Last season, the White Sox took three of the four meetings against the Cubs. Last night, the Cubs matched last season's win total against the White Sox with a 7-3 win over their crosstown rival.
Now, they'll look to complete a quick sweep tonight.
The matchup will pit Marcus Stroman against Lance Lynn. However, with trade rumors surrounding both, they could be making their final starts for their respective teams.
The Cubs enter as short road favorites, while the total is set at 8.5 runs for this matchup. Let's dive in and see where the betting value lies.
Chicago Cubs
After dropping the first game of their series against the Cardinals over the weekend, the Cubs won the final three games of the series and extended their winning streak to four last night. They've now won seven of their 11 games since the All-Star break.
The offense has led the way. Over their last 11 games, the Cubs are averaging 7.6 runs per game. They have also hit 15 home runs, including four last night. That's one area where the Cubs may be able to take advantage of Lynn, who has been susceptible to the long-ball this season.
Cody Bellinger is one hitter who may take advantage. Bellinger has been on fire in July, hitting .428 with seven homers — five since the All-Star break — and 22 RBIs. He also has a homer in five career at-bats against Lynn, who has struggled mightily against lefties.
Ian Happ, Trey Mancini and Patrick Wisdom all have home runs off Lynn as well.
The Cubs may need their offense to carry the load if they're unable to get a better outing from Marcus Stroman. After an excellent start to the season, Stroman is 1-3 with a 6.46 ERA over his past five starts.
His ERA still sits at 3.09, which is good for third in the National League. However, his 3.86 xERA and below-average marks in average exit velocity and hard-hit percentage tell a different story.
Chicago White Sox
While the Cubs have been surging, their crosstown rivals have been in freefall. The White Sox have lost four straight and six of their past seven games. They're now 20 games under .500 with the trade deadline less than a week away.
The White Sox have allowed six runs per game over their past seven, and that mark also represents Lynn's ERA.
Lynn is enduring one of the strangest seasons you will ever see. He has a 6.18 ERA, 1.44 WHIP and leads the league with 28 home runs allowed. Left-handed hitters, in particular, have given him trouble, as he has allowed a .338 batting average and 18 dingers against them.
However, Lynn also has a 10.9 K/9 average and ranks 10th in the Major Leagues with 139 strikeouts in 115 innings. Lynn is in the 75th percentile in strikeout rate and 84th percentile in whiff rate. His ERA is also over a run higher than his xERA of 4.81.
He typically has gotten a longer leash this season and sometimes has gone an inning longer than perhaps he should have. In his last start, Lynn gave two runs in the seventh inning. However, that one was a bad start all around as he allowed nine runs, six of which were earned.
The bad news for Lynn is the White Sox are averaging just four runs per game at home and rank 23rd in runs scored overall.
Their main source of offense this season has been Luis Robert. The All-Star center fielder sits fourth in the Major Leagues with 28 home runs and owns a WAR of 4.2 as well.
Cubs vs White Sox Betting Pick
Despite being two games below .500, the Cubs are ninth in the Major Leagues in run differential. Comparatively, the White Sox are 25th in that category.
Five of the Cubs' last six wins have come by two runs or more, while four have been by four runs or more.
The Cubs are fourth in walk rate against right-handed pitchers and will likely work several counts against Lynn. A few high-stress innings will run up his pitch count. As Lynn wears down, he could give up a few home runs if the Cubs don't get to him earlier.
With Stroman getting the ball, the Cubs will have the advantage on the mound. The White Sox also provide an opportunity for Stroman to get back on track, as they're averaging just 3.3 runs per game over their past six games.
Right now, the Cubs are the better team on the mound and at the plate, so I'll back them on the run line.
Pick: Cubs -1.5 (+130) |
