Don’t look now, but the Detroit Tigers are currently holding a playoff spot, tied with the Minnesota Twins for the third AL wild-card spot entering Friday.
On August 10, the Tigers were 55-63 and 10 games behind the final wild-card team. Their odds to make the MLB playoffs were +3000. The Tigers have gone 25-10 since that day and are on the verge of making one of the most improbable runs we have ever seen.
The Baltimore Orioles hold the first wild-card spot and should be firmly in the MLB postseason, but they have fallen further behind the New York Yankees for the AL East crown. Baltimore has gone just 27-30 since the All-Star break, but its terrific start gave them enough wiggle room.
See how I think this clash between potential postseason foes will play out below in my Tigers vs Orioles prediction for Friday, September 20.
Tigers-Orioles Prediction
- Tigers vs Orioles pick: Tigers Moneyline (+164 | Play to +140)
My Tigers-Orioles best bet is on the Tigers moneyline, where I see value at +164. The best line is available at FanDuel, as well as other sportsbooks — make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Tigers vs Orioles Odds
| Tigers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -142 | 7.5 -115o / -105u | +164 |
| Orioles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +118 | 7.5 -115o / -105u | -196 |
Tigers vs Orioles Projected Starting Pitchers
| LHP Brant Hurter | Stat | RHP Corbin Burnes |
|---|---|---|
| 5-1 | W-L | 14-8 |
| 0.8 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 3.4 |
| 2.56 / 2.18 | ERA /xERA | 3.06 / 3.38 |
| 2.65 / 2.94 | FIP / xFIP | 3.63 / 3.62 |
| 0.83 | WHIP | 1.12 |
| 21.6% | K-BB% | 16.2% |
| 56.7% | GB% | 48.1% |
| 90 | Stuff+ | 118 |
| 102 | Location+ | 103 |
Mike Ianniello’s Tigers vs Orioles Preview
Detroit Tigers Betting Preview: Tigers Running Hot
Detroit has yet to name a starter for Friday, but they will likely use some sort of opener before handing the ball to Brant Hurter as a piggyback. The promising prospect made his MLB debut in relief on August 4 and has been sensational in his role as a long relief pitcher.
Hurter has made eight appearances, with just one official start, but has logged 38 2/3 innings. He has racked up 37 strikeouts while allowing just a 2.56 ERA and .191 average against.
In each of his last three appearances, Hurter has pitched at least five innings and allowed one run or fewer. His last outing came on September 13 against Baltimore when he did not allow a hit across 5 2/3 innings while striking out eight Orioles.
Detroit’s offense has been below average for most of the season, ranking just 22nd in wRC+. Since their incredible turnaround beginning August 11th, they have climbed to 10th in wRC+ and ninth in wOBA.
After missing more than two months, Kerry Carpenter returned to the lineup and has been crushing the ball. He has a .930 OPS over the last month and Riley Greene might be the most underrated player in the league.
Baltimore Orioles Betting Preview: A Slumping Second Half
One of the reasons for the Orioles second-half slide has been the slump of Corbin Burnes. In the first half of the season, Burnes was firmly in the AL Cy Young discussion with a 2.43 ERA and .265 wOBA allowed with an 8.34 K/9 rate.
Since the All-Star break, though, Burnes holds a 4.24 ERA and is allowing a .298 wOBA and his K/9 rate has dropped to 7.63. He had a terrible August and has been able to bounce back a little in September. He is coming off his best outing in a while with a seven-inning shutout performance against these Tigers.
Offensively, the second-half slump has been a similar story. At the mid-season point, Baltimore led the league in wRC+ and ranked second in wOBA. They had hit more home runs than any other team. Since the break, the Orioles have fallen to just 10th in wRC+ and 16th in wOBA.
Gunnar Henderson has cooled off after an MVP-caliber start to the season and Adley Rutschman has been terrible down the stretch for Baltimore. The star catcher is batting just .202 with a .590 OPS since the All-Star break.
Tigers vs Orioles Prediction, Betting Analysis
How can you bet against the Tigers right now? Since August 10, they have had the best record in the league and have something special building with a postseason berth firmly in their sights.
Baltimore has been playing below-.500 baseball since the All-Star break and their lineup has really cooled off — as has Burnes on the mound. His strikeout rate is a major concern, as it has continued to drop throughout the season. His velocity is down and he is walking more batters, too.
Hurter has looked terrific in the piggyback roll since his call-up. He has earned a win and five straight outings and has allowed two runs or fewer in seven of his eight appearances.
In his last outing, Baltimore was just one out away from a combined no-hitter, with Hurter doing the bulk of the work. Hurter’s sinker was dominant as he retired 17 straight batters against the Orioles and his sweeper generated six of his eight strikeouts.
Detroit has everything working for them right now and is coming to Baltimore after an off day. A team playing this well should not be this big of an underdog. Back the Tigers here.
Pick: Detroit Tigers +164 (Play to +140)
Moneyline
I'm picking Detroit moneyline.
Run Line (Spread)
The run line is set for 1.5, and I will pass.
Over/Under
The total is set for 7.5, and I will pass.
Tigers-Orioles Betting Trends
- 90% of the tickets generated and 100% of the money is aimed for Orioles moneyline.
- 73% of bets and 78% of the money is targeted for the Over.
- 86% of tickets and 91% of the money is aimed at the Orioles online.
Tigers Betting Trends
- The Tigers are 4-1 in their past five games.
- The Tigers are 4-1 ATS in their past five games.
- In the past five games for Detroit, the Under has hit.
- The Tigers are 41-37 on the road.
- The Tigers are 46-32 ATS on the road.
Orioles Betting Trends
- The Orioles are 2-3 in their past five games.
- The Orioles are 2-3 ATS in their past five games.
- In the past five games for Baltimore, the total has gone 2-2-1.
- The Orioles are 42-35 at home.
- The Orioles are 39-38 ATS at home.
