The Detroit Tigers and Cleveland Guardians will officially settle their American League Division Series on Saturday afternoon at Progressive Field. First pitch is set for 1:08 p.m. ET on TBS and Max.
Tigers Game 5 starter Tarik Skubal, who earned the AL pitching Triple Crown, has carried his dominance over into the MLB playoffs. He has been nearly unhittable. The Guardians will turn to Matthew Boyd, who held his own in his first outing of the series with 4 2/3 scoreless innings.
Tigers vs Guardians odds have the Tigers as -120 moneyline favorites and Guardians as +100 underdogs. The over/under is 6 (+100. / -120u). The Tigers are +155 to cover the run line (-1.5) and the Guardians are -190 (+1.5).
Let's get into my my Tigers vs Guardians prediction and picks for Game 5.
My Tigers vs Guardians Prediction for Game 5
- Tigers vs Guardians Game 5 pick: Guardians Team Total Under 2.5 (-105)
My Tigers vs Guardians best bet is on the Guardians' team total under, where I see value at 2.5 or 2 runs. The best line is available at BetMGM, but make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Guardians Odds, Predictions
| Tigers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-1.5 +155 | 6 +100o / -120u | -120 |
| Guardians Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+1.5 -190 | 6 +100o / -120u | +100 |
- Tigers vs Guardians Moneyline: Tigers -120, Guardians +100
- Tigers vs Guardians Total: Over/Under 6 (+100o / -120u)
- Tigers vs Guardians Run Line: Tigers -1.5 (+155), Guardians +1.5 (-190)
Game 5 Probable Pitchers for Tigers vs Guardians
| LHP Tarik Skubal (DET) | Stat | LHP Matthew Boyd (CLE) |
|---|---|---|
| 18-4 | W-L | 2-2 |
| 5.9 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.9 |
| 2.39 / 2.70 | ERA /xERA | 2.72 / 3.10 |
| 2.49 / 2.83 | FIP / xFIP | 3.29 / 3.89 |
| 0.92 | WHIP | 1.13 |
| 25.6% | K-BB% | 19.9% |
| 45.7% | GB% | 31.4% |
| 104 | Stuff+ | 75 |
| 103 | Location+ | 102 |
Tigers vs Guardians Preview, Predictions, Lineups
Tigers Betting Preview
Tigers Starting Lineup
- Justyn-Henry Malloy (DH)
- Matt Vierling (3B)
- Riley Greene (LF)
- Andy Ibanez (2B)
- Wenceel Perez (RF)
- Spencer Torkelson (1B)
- Parker Meadows (CF)
- Jake Rogers (C)
- Trey Sweeney (SS)
Skubal was phenomenal against the Guardians his first time out, yielding three hits and zero walks. He pitched seven scoreless innings, after throwing six scoreless against the Houston Astros in the Wild Card Series.
Skubal held a 2.39 ERA and 2.70 xERA in the regular season. He had an 87.4 mph Average Exit Velocity and a Hard-Hit Rate that ranked in the 84th percentile. He only walked 4.6% of batters while striking out more than 30%.
Since he can keep the ball on the ground (72nd percentile), and Cleveland has a contact-oriented offensive profile, Skubal is a major mismatch to keep the Guardians in check.
The Tigers held a 69 wRC+, 9.7% walk rate, and 31% strikeout rate against lefties in September. They could hit righties, but with Boyd on the hill, they may have issues.
They only had two bats above a .330 xwOBA off lefties, so the rest of the lineup could have trouble with Boyd and other southpaws in the Cleveland relief staff.
In relief for the Tigers, manager A.J. Hinch has multiple options behind Skubal. That said, he should throw at least five strong innings before handing the ball off to the bullpen.
Detroit’s bullpen only holds a 21.6% strikeout rate in the playoffs, but it does have a sub-7% walk rate.
Guardians Betting Preview
Guardians Starting Lineup
- Steven Kwan (LF)
- David Fry (DH)
- Jose Ramirez (3B)
- Lane Thomas (CF)
- Josh Naylor (1B)
- Jhonkensy Noel (RF)
- Bo Naylor (C)
- Andres Gimenez (2B)
- Brayan Rocchio (SS)
Boyd held a 2.72 ERA and 3.10 xERA in limited appearances over the regular season.
His Average Exit Velocity was nearly identical to Skubal’s, but his Hard-Hit Rate is around 38.1%. Boyd does not walk many (under 8%) and struck out over 27% of batters — he has a good matchup against a Detroit offense that swings and misses often against southpaws.
The Guardians had a 153 wRC+ in September against lefties, with a 9.7% walk rate and 21.5% strikeout rate. They only had 144 plate appearances against southpaws in that month, though.
In the playoffs, against both righties and lefties, they have a 73 wRC+. This is likely what the result may look like when they face Skubal’s wrath again.
In relief, the Guardians have a bevy of options, but at this juncture, the Tigers have seen Cleveland's best relievers several times.
Tigers vs Guardians Prediction, Betting Analysis
Skubal is the ace in this game and should mow down the Guardians consistently. This very well could be a 2-1 ballgame with either side winning.
Bet the Cleveland Guardians’ team total under 2.5.
Pick: Guardians Team Total Under 2.5 (-105)
Moneyline
I have no play on the moneyline in this game.
Run Line (Spread)
I have no play on either side of the run line.
Over/Under
I have no play on the total.
Tigers vs Guardians Game 5 Viewing Info: Channel, Start Time, Streaming
| Location: | Progressive Field in Cleveland, Ohio |
| Date: | Saturday, Oct. 12, 2024 |
| Time: | 1:08 p.m. ET |
| TV Channel/Live Streaming: | TBS, Max, MLB.TV, Sling TV |
