The Cleveland Guardians host the Detroit Tigers for Game 2 of this AL Division series on Monday afternoon at Progressive Field. First pitch is scheduled for 4:08 p.m; the game will be broadcast on TBS, TruTV and Max, and can also be streamed on MLB.TV and YouTube TV.
With a 1-0 series lead, Cleveland will hand the ball to left-hander — and former Tiger — Matthew Boyd. Detroit will counter with left-hander Tarik Skubal as it tries to even up the series.
Tigers vs Guardians odds have the Tigers as -130 moneyline favorites and the Guardians as +110 underdogs. The over/under opened at 6.5, but the consensus total is now 6 (-105o / -115u). The Guardians are -178 to cover their run line (+1.5) while the Tigers are +150 (-1.5).
My Tigers vs Guardians prediction and picks, plus the latest Game 2 odds and starting lineups for Monday, October 7, are below.
My Tigers vs Guardians Predictions for Game 2
- Tigers vs Guardians pick: Under 6.5 (-124 | Play to -130)
My Tigers vs Guardians best bet is on under 6.5, where I see value at -124. That was the best number at the time of writing — make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Guardians Odds, Prediction
| Tigers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
-130 | 6 -105o / -115u | -1.5 +150 |
| Guardians Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
+110 | 6 -105o / -115u | +1.5 -178 |
- Tigers vs Guardians Moneyline: Tigers -130, Guardians +110
- Tigers vs Guardians Total: Over/Under 6 (-105o / -115u)
- Tigers vs Guardians Run Line: Tigers -1.5 (+150), Guardians +1.5 (-178)
Tigers vs Guardians Game 2 Probable Pitchers
| LHP Tarik Skubal (DET) | Stat | LHP Matthew Boyd (CLE) |
|---|---|---|
| 18-4 | W-L | 2-2 |
| 5.9 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.9 |
| 2.39 / 2.70 | ERA /xERA | 2.72 / 3.10 |
| 2.49 / 2.83 | FIP / xFIP | 3.29 / 3.89 |
| 0.92 | WHIP | 1.13 |
| 25.6% | K-BB% | 19.9% |
| 46.4% | GB% | 33.3% |
| 104 | Stuff+ | 75 |
| 103 | Location+ | 102 |
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Tigers vs Guardians Game 2 Previews, Predictions
Tigers Betting Preview: Starting Lineup; Skubal Gives Tigers Big Edge
Tigers Game 2 Lineup
- Justyn-Henry Malloy (DH)
- Matt Vierling (3B)
- Andy Ibanez (2B)
- Riley Greene (LF)
- Wenceel Perez (RF)
- Spencer Torkelson (1B)
- Parker Meadows (CF)
- Jake Rogers (C)
- Trey Sweeney (SS)
Any time Skubal is on the mound, I'm immediately looking to see if the Tigers moneyline or the under is in play.
For this game, we are going to target the under, which opened at 6.5 but has dipped to 6 at a number of sportsbooks.
The best pitcher in baseball, Skubal posted an 18-4 record in 31 starts during the regular season with a 2.39 ERA and 0.92 WHIP. His underlying metrics are equally dominant as the southpaw ranks in the 84th percentile or higher in xERA, xBA, average exit velocity, strikeout rate, walk rate and hard-hit rate.
Skubal is coming off a dominant postseason start against the Houston Astros, a game in which he tossed six scoreless frames. There were only four total runs scored in that outing, and I expect a similar result on Monday against Cleveland.
The left-hander is 2-0 over his past four starts against the Guardians with a 1.80 ERA.
Following Skubal is a bullpen that ranks fifth in ERA and 11th in FIP.
However, this pitching staff may not get much run support as Detroit ranks in the bottom half of the league in runs scored per game, hits per game, BA, OBP, SLG, OPS, home runs and stolen bases.
Guardians Betting Preview: Starting Lineup; Matthew Boyd Faces Familiar Foe
Guardians Game 2 Lineup
- Steven Kwan (LF)
- David Fry (DH)
- Jose Ramirez (3B)
- Lane Thomas (CF)
- Josh Naylor (1B)
- Jhonkensy Noel (RF)
- Andres Gimenez (2B)
- Austin Hedges (C)
- Brayan Rocchio (SS)
Cleveland's lineup isn't much stronger, considering that it also ranks in the bottom half of the league in hits per game, BA, OBP, SLG and OPS.
The good news for the Guardians is that they can lean on a strong pitching staff, beginning with Boyd. Through eight starts this season, the left-hander boasts a 2.72 ERA and 1.13 WHIP.
His analytics suggest future success, given that Boyd ranks in the top half of the league in xERA, xBA, average exit velocity, strikeout rate, barrel rate and hard-hit rate.
We should also trust the best bullpen in baseball, which ranks first in both ERA and FIP.
Tigers vs Guardians Prediction & Over/Under Betting Analysis
While 6.5 is a relatively low total, I feel confident in a low-scoring affair on Monday.
Skubal will be the AL Cy Young winner and is the best pitcher in baseball. Meanwhile, Boyd has proven that he can hold his own as well.
After both starting pitchers take care of business, we can trust two bullpens that both rank in the top five in ERA. That just leaves the hitting, which is the main weakness of each team.
Both lineups fail to crack the top half of the league in hits per game, BA, OBP, SLG and OPS.
Finally, the weather should help us out as the forecast calls for winds blowing in from left-center field.
Pick: Under 6.5 (-124 at FanDuel | Play to -130)
Moneyline
While I like Detroit to even up the series, I have no interest in laying -130 on its moneyline to do so.
Pick: Pass
Run Line (Spread)
In a projected low-scoring affair, I would lean toward Cleveland at +1.5, but not with the associated -178 line.
Pick: Pass
Over/Under
I'm betting under 6.5.
Pick: Bet Under 6.5
Tigers Betting Trends
- Tigers are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
- Tigers are 48-33 in their road games against the spread
- The totals have gone OVER in 1 of Tigers' last 5 games
Guardians Betting Trends
- Guardians are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
- The totals have gone OVER in 0 of Guardians' last 5 games
- The totals have gone OVER in 38 of Guardians' 80 last games at home
Tigers vs Guardians Key Injuries
Guardians Injuries & News
| Player | Status |
|---|---|
| OF Tyler Freeman | Oblique injury (removed from ALDS roster) |
| OF Angel Martinez | Replaces Tyler Freeman on ALDS roster |
Tigers vs Guardians Game 2 Viewing Info: Channel, Start Time, Streaming
| Location: | Progressive Field in Cleveland, Ohio |
| Date: | Monday, Oct. 7, 2024 |
| Time: | 4:08 p.m. ET |
| TV Channel/Live Streaming: | TBS, TruTV, Max, MLB.TV, YouTube TV |
