The Houston Astros host the Detroit Tigers on April 28, 2025. First pitch from Daikin Park is scheduled for 8:10 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on SCHN2.
The Tigers are cooking at the moment, entering the week on a four-game winning streak after a sweep of the Baltimore Orioles, and they seem to be well-positioned to grab another series here behind strong play on both sides of the ball.
Find my MLB betting preview and Tigers vs Astros prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Tigers vs Astros Prediction
- Tigers vs Astros picks: Tigers ML +115 (Play to -105)
My Tigers vs Astros best bet is Tigers moneyline. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Tigers vs Astros Odds
| Tigers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +170 | 7.5 105o / -125u | +100 |
| Astros Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -205 | 7.5 105o / -125u | -120 |
Tigers vs Astros Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Jack Flaherty (DET) | Stat | RHP Ronel Blanco (HOU) |
|---|---|---|
| 1-2 | W-L | 2-2 |
| 0.6 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.1 |
| 2.63/3.55 | ERA /xERA | 5.01/3.63 |
| 3.09/3.09 | FIP / xFIP | 4.55/4.73 |
| 1.02 | WHIP | 1.37 |
| 22.5% | K-BB% | 8% |
| 41.8% | GB% | 36.8% |
| 99 | Stuff+ | 90 |
| 101 | Location+ | 99 |
Kenny Ducey’s Tigers vs Astros Preview
Detroit Tigers Betting Preview: Good Matchup for Flaherty
Detroit will turn things over to Jack Flaherty to kick off this series, and while he hasn't been quite as sharp as he was when he initially joined the Tigers a season ago, it's hard to find many criticisms.
Flaherty has brought his strikeout rate back up over 30%, and that's been the biggest reason why he's posted a 2.63 ERA in five starts. His Expected Batting Average is up to .244 despite few changes in the trajectory of his batted balls allowed, and his Expected Slugging has risen 17 points to .397 as well.
Neither of these marks is bad, but they're merely average — and the key to Flaherty's dominance in Detroit last season was his ability to get outs on contact in addition to racking up third strikes.
At any rate, this is still very much a complete starting pitcher who has just experienced some slight dips in his batted ball and walk numbers. He's still finding strikeouts, and that will do just fine.
Offensively, Detroit has posted the eighth-best wRC+ in baseball thus far with a meaty 10.2% walk rate and a decent enough .141 Isolated Power. The strikeouts are still somewhat concerning, but that number is trickling down to a manageable spot, now sitting at 23.7%.
Houston Astros Betting Preview: Blanco and Astros Offense Can't Be Trusted
Ronel Blanco is certainly a weird pitcher. He was brilliant a year ago, despite a poor 10.1% walk rate, pitching to a clean .226 xBA with some occasional issues in suppressing power.
This year, he profiles the exact same on contact with some diminishing returns in the strikeout and walk categories, yet his Expected ERA is well under his real-life 5.01 ERA. A year ago, it was the opposite story, as he sat under his 4.00 xERA at 2.80.
So, no, I don't really have the strongest hold on Blanco. He pitches to a lot of fly balls and walks a ton of batters, which is generally a combination that draws my ire — especially if he's not getting strikeouts.
I don't trust the delta between his xERA and ERA here on account of his high pop-up rate and shockingly low xBA on the fastball — which is 50 points under last season.
I also don't trust this Astros offense. They've long been declining, and now it's showing with an 89 wRC+ in what could be a rebuilding year. They're just swinging at a lot of pitches and doing very little on contact with a .114 ISO and .231 average, next to a poor 22.2% strikeout rate.
Things aren't exactly improving, either, with their walk rate and contact numbers going the opposite way in the last week.
Tigers vs Astros Prediction, Betting Analysis
This line makes little sense to me with the way Flaherty is running. If this were an xERA-off, which many bettors and handicappers love to play, then yes, you'd take Blanco over Flaherty given xERA would say the former is due for improvement and the latter some regression.
Digging deeper, however, there's plenty to hate about Blanco — particularly in this matchup against a team that walks a ton and can hit for power with a preference towards fly-ball arms.
On the flip side, Flaherty looks as good as he did last year, and while Houston may not strike out a ton, it's doing nothing on contact and starving for hits.
The Tigers are my clear side here.
Pick: Tigers ML +115
