The surprising Detroit Tigers (86-76 this season) take on the Houston Astros (88-73) at Minute Maid Park on Tuesday afternoon for Game 1 of their AL Wild Card Series. First pitch is scheduled for 2:32 p.m. ET and the game will be broadcast on ABC and streamed on YouTube TV, ESPN+ and other streaming platforms.
The Astros are -145 moneyline favorites today, and the Tigers are +122 underdogs. The over/under is set at 6 runs (-120o/ +100u). The Tigers are -195 to cover the run line (+1.5) while the Astros are +162 to cover (-1.5).
Two formidable southpaws take the hill for Game 1 — it will be AL Cy Young Award frontrunner and Mr. Triple Crown Tarik Skubal for the Tigers and the reliable Framber Valdez for the Astros. The Astros had major moves before Game 1, as they announced Yordan Alvarez, who's dealing with a knee injury, made their Wild Card Series roster. Future Hall of Famer Justin Verlander did not.
Find my AL Wild Card Game 1 preview and Tigers vs. Astros predictions and MLB picks for Tuesday, October 1, below.
Tigers vs. Astros Predictions
- Tigers vs. Astros pick: Astros moneyline
I predict the Astros will beat the Tigers today, so my Astros vs. Tigers best bet for Wild Card Game 1 is on the Astros moneyline. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Moneyline
I'm betting the Houston Astros moneyline in Game 1, which I'll explain below.
Over/Under
I'm passing on the over/under of 6.
Run Line
I'm also passing on the run line for both sides.
Tigers vs. Astros Odds, Lines
| Tigers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
+122 | 6 -120o / +100 | +1.5 -195 |
| Astros Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
-145 | 6 -120o / +100u | -1.5 +162 |
- Tigers vs. Astros moneyline: Astros -145, Tigers +122
- Tigers vs. Astros over/under: 6 runs
- Tigers vs. Astros run line: Astros -1.5 (+162), Tigers +1.5 (-195)
Projected Starting Pitchers Today
| LHP Tarik Skubal (DET) | Stat | LHP Framber Valdez (HOU) |
|---|---|---|
| 18-4 | W-L | 15-7 |
| 5.9 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 3.6 |
| 2.39/2.70 | ERA /xERA | 2.91/3.36 |
| 2.49/2.83 | FIP / xFIP | 3.25/3.08 |
| 0.92 | WHIP | 1.11 |
| 25.6% | K-BB% | 16.2% |
| 45.7% | GB% | 60.6% |
| 104 | Stuff+ | 114 |
| 103 | Location+ | 97 |
MLB Playoffs Wild Card Game 1 Preview
Detroit Tigers
Skubal maintains a 2.39 ERA and a 2.70 xERA. His Average Exit Velocity is 87.4 mph and his Hard-Hit Rate is in the 84th percentile. His strikeout rate is 30.3% and his walk rate is under 5%.
Those are impeccable numbers for a starting pitcher. That said, the Astros can hit lefties and this is Skubal’s first time in the playoffs.
At the dish, the Tigers have simply refused to get on base against lefties over the last month. They carry a 69 wRC, a 9.7% walk rate and a 31% strikeout rate into this game. To put that into a bit more perspective, the Chicago White Sox own a better wRC+ against southpaws over the past month. The Tigers only have three hitters with a xwOBA over .320 off of lefties, so Valdez could carve this lineup apart.
The Tigers were carried to the postseason by their bullpen, which has a 3.72 xFIP, a 6.1% walk rate and a 21.9% strikeout rate over the past month.
Houston Astros
Valdez has been fantastic in 2024 with a 2.91 ERA and a 3.36 xERA. His strikeout rate is 24% and his walk rate is under 8%. He gives up a high Average Exit Velocity and Hard-Hit Rate, but keeps the ball on the ground so often, that it may not be an issue. Since the Tigers have had so much trouble against lefties, he could have a long outing.
The Houston Astros crush lefties. They received some good news that Chas McCormick will be good to go for the playoffs. Additionally, Yordan Álvarez is taking some cuts and could be slotted into this lineup.
Even still, the Astros have a 147 wRC+, a 8.6% walk rate and a 19.9% strikeout rate off of lefties over the past month. There is a massive gulf between how these lineups have fared against lefties, and the Astros win out on paper. They have several hitters with an xwOBA over .320 and could force Skubal out of the game.
In relief, the Astros have a 3.40 xFIP, a 7.5% walk rate and a 28.3% strikeout rate over the past month. They also have several options behind Valdez and strike out more hitters. Detroit's lineup struggles to make contact, which could be a major factor late in games in this series.
This is a chalk pick, but the Astros should take Game 1. Skubal is better than Valdez, but the playoffs are another beast and Detroit can't hit lefties.
Look for the Astros to knock Skubal out of the game earlier than anticipated. Bet Houston from -142 to -160.
Pick: Astros Moneyline (-142) | Play to -160
Tigers Betting Trends
Tigers are 4-1 in their last 5 games.
Tigers are 4-1 in their last 5 games against the spread
Tigers are 46-35 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 3 of Tigers' last 5 games
Astros Betting Trends
Astros are 4-1 in their last 5 games.
Astros are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 1 of Astros' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 45 of Astros' 81 last games at home
Tigers vs. Astros Key Injuries
| Player | Status |
|---|---|
| DH Yordan Alvarez | Right knee sprain (included on playoff roster) |
| OF Chas McCormick | Right hand fracture (included on playoff roster) |
How to Watch: Time, Channel, Streaming
| Location: | Minute Maid Park |
| Date: | Tuesday, Oct. 1, 2024 |
| Time: | 2:32 p.m. ET |
| TV Channel/Live Streaming: | ABC / ESPN+, YouTube TV |
Astros vs. Tigers is set to start at 2:32 p.m. ET on Tuesday. The game is airing on ABC and streaming live on ESPN+, YouTube TV and other streaming platforms.
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