The Houston Astros host the Detroit Tigers in Game 2 of this AL Wild Card series on Wednesday afternoon at Minute Maid Park. First pitch for this potential series finale is scheduled for 2:32 p.m. ET. You can find my Tigers vs Astros predictions, pick and best bet for October 2 below.
Houston is set to hand the ball to right-hander Hunter Brown. Detroit will counter with left-hander Tyler Holton, who will serve as an opener.
Let's take a look at the latest betting odds and get to my Tigers vs Astros pick.
Tigers vs Astros Prediction
- Tigers vs Astros pick: Under 7.5 (+100 | Play to -105)
My Astros vs Tigers best bet for Wild Card Game 2 is on the under, where I see value at +100. The best line is available at bet365 — make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Tigers vs Astros Odds
| Tigers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+142 | 7.5 -115 / -105 | +1.5 -154 |
| Astros Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-170 | 7.5 -115 / -105 | -1.5 +190 |
Tigers vs Astros Projected Starting Pitchers
| LHP Tyler Holton (DET) | Stat | RHP Hunter Brown (HOU) |
|---|---|---|
| 7-2 | W-L | 11-9 |
| 1.4 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 3.1 |
| 2.19 / 2.75 | ERA /xERA | 3.49 / 3.27 |
| 3.17 / 3.68 | FIP / xFIP | 3.58 / 3.45 |
| 0.78 | WHIP | 1.27 |
| 16.9% | K-BB% | 16.7% |
| 47.7% | GB% | 48.5% |
| 82 | Stuff+ | 103 |
| 103 | Location+ | 101 |
Tony Sartori's Tigers vs Astros Preview
Detroit Tigers Betting Preview: Holton Could Find Success
Detroit is going with a bullpen game, starting with Holton as an opener. He's done so almost a dozen times this season, and with great success.
Holton is 7-2 with a 2.19 ERA and a 0.78 WHIP on the season. His underlying metrics are equally dominant as he ranks in the 91st percentile or higher in xERA, average exit velocity, walk rate and hard-hit rate.
He's one of the best relievers in baseball, but is also capable of handling a multi-inning workload.
Following Holton will be the rest of the Tigers' relief staff, which ranks fifth in ERA and 11th in FIP.
Detroit is in the postseason because of its pitching, but not for its hitting. The Tigers finished the regular season in the bottom half of the league in runs scored per game, hits per game, BA, OBP, SLG, OPS, home runs and stolen bases.
Those woes at the dish are likely to continue against Brown, a pitcher whom this current Detroit lineup possesses a .209 xBA, a .345 xSLG and a .271 xwOBA against through 71 combined career plate appearances.
Houston Astros Betting Preview: Brown Fares Well Against Houston
Brown is 3-0 through five appearances against the Tigers and posted a 2.93 ERA in those outings. That success shouldn't be shocking as the right-hander is one of the best starters in baseball.
Brown went 11-9 with a 3.49 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP through 31 appearances in the regular season. His analytics were even stronger as he posted a 3.27 xERA and ranked in the 93rd percentile or higher in average exit velocity, barrel rate and hard-hit rate.
Like the Tigers, the Astros possess a strong bullpen. Houston's relief staff ranks eighth in ERA and 12th in xFIP.
Tigers vs Astros Prediction, Betting Analysis
There are an abundance of reasons to like the under in this spot.
Holton is one of the best relief pitchers in baseball and is expected to throw a few innings. Even if he only tosses two or three, we should trust the Tigers' relief staff the rest of the way.
Speaking of relief staffs, Houston's is equally as strong, though may not be needed much as Brown is a quality starting pitcher going against a weak lineup.
Finally, we are catching a particularly good price on Under 7.5 at +100 via bet365, a line that is four-to-10 cents shorter than the rest of the market at the time of writing.
Pick: Under 7.5 (+100 | Play to -105)
Moneyline
I'm going to pass on the moneyline. While I like Houston to even up the series, I have no interest in laying -170 on it to do so.
Run Line (Spread)
I'm going to pass on the run line. I lean Astros -1.5, but think a low scoring affair will likely keep this game tight.
Over/Under
I'm betting Under 7.5.
Tigers-Astros Game 2 Weather Forecast
