The Detroit Tigers (70-68) and San Diego Padres (78-61) face off in an MLB interleague battle on Monday. This will be the first of a four-game series at Petco Park in San Diego. First pitch for this Labor Day MLB tilt is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET.
Detroit is not yet eliminated from the playoff contention; the Tigers, who are 8-2 over their last 10 games, are 8 1/2 games out of first place in the AL Central and five games out of the final AL wild-card spot. The Padres are third in the NL West and five games behind the Dodgers for the division lead, but they hold a three-game lead in the NL wild-card race entering Monday.
Find my Tigers vs Padres prediction and picks for Monday, September 2, below.
Editor's Notes: This Tigers-Padres preview was written before San Diego activated two-time All-Star Fernando Tatis Jr. from the injured list. Tatis, who hasn't played since June 21 due to a stress reaction in his right femur, is batting second in the Padres lineup and playing right field.
Additionally, the Tigers are opening the game with left-handed reliever Tyler Holton; right-hander Ty Madden is expected to pitch in some capacity after Holton.
Tigers vs Padres Predictions
- Tigers-Padres picks: Padres -1.5 (+100, Play to -105)
My Tigers-Padres best bet is on Padres -1.5, where I see value at +100. The best line is available at FanDuel, as well as other sportsbooks — make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Detroit Tigers vs San Diego Padres Odds
| Tigers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
+180 | 7.5 -120o / +100u | +1.5 -120 |
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
-215 | 7.5 -120o / +100u | -1.5 +100 |
- Tigers-Padres Moneyline: Tigers +180 | Padres -215
- Tigers-Padres Over/Under: 7.5 total runs (-120o / +100u)
- Tigers-Padres Run Line (Spread): Tigers +1.5 (-120) | Padres -1.5 (+100)
Probable Starting Pitchers for Tigers at Padres
| LHP Tyler Holton (DET) (Opener) | Stat | RHP Joe Musgrove (SD) |
|---|---|---|
| 5-1 | W-L | 4-4 |
| 1.1 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.6 |
| 2.44 / 3.16 | ERA /xERA | 4.44 / 5.15 |
| 3.33 / 3.88 | FIP / xFIP | 4.41 / 4.10 |
| 0.83 | WHIP | 1.27 |
| 15.6% | K-BB% | 14.9% |
| 44.4% | GB% | 42.6% |
| 84 | Stuff+ | 117 |
| 103 | Location+ | 101 |
Tigers-Padres Preview, Prediction
Tigers Betting Preview: What to Make of Ty Madden?
Getting the bulk work for Detroit tonight will be rookie Ty Madden. The 24-year old was ranked as the No. 6 prospect in the Tigers’ organization, according to FanGraphs.
He has a good fastball/slider combination with a decent curveball as well. He also possesses a changeup and cutter to throw hitters off.
He made his MLB debut against the White Sox last week, throwing five innings and allowing just one earned run. He walked three batters and only struck out two in this outing, which may not be a recipe for success against offenses that aren’t the worst in the league.
This season, the Tigers’ offense ranks 22nd in wRC+ and 24th in wOBA. They're 22nd in SLG, 28th in OBP and 16th in ISO. Detroit is one of the more undisciplined offenses, as it ranks 10th in strikeout rate and has the fifth-lowest walk rate.
Detroit ranks 21st in hard-hit rate, 16th in barrel rate and 21st in exit velocity this season. It's 23rd in ground-ball rate and 10th in fly-ball rate as it's typically hitting the ball in the air.
San Diego Padres Betting Preview: Joe Musgrove All Over the Map
Joe Musgrove will take the mound for the Padres tonight. The veteran right-hander has 4.44 ERA and 1.27 WHIP this season over 71 innings pitched in what's been an injury-shortened year.
Musgrove has a 5.15 xERA, 4.41 FIP and 4.06 SIERA, so he's a bit all over the map in his smaller sample size.
Musgrove was out from May 26 until August 12 with elbow inflammation and bone spurs in his elbow. Since returning, Musgrove has made four starts and performed well in all of them.
In the first three starts, he didn’t allow more than one run in any of them, including a seven-inning shutout performance. His most recent start was a three earned run quality start over six innings last week, so it seems like Musgrove is cleared for a full workload.
Musgrove ranks in the 69th percentile in whiff rate this year but just 39th percentile in strikeout rate among qualified pitchers. He has a walk rate of just 6.4%, which ranks in the 74th percentile.
He's struggled with allowing quality contact, ranking in the 45th percentile in hard-hit rate, 25th percentile in average exit velocity and sixth percentile in barrel rate. He has a ground-ball rate that ranks in the 55th percentile, which has helped him to avoid disaster with these hard hit numbers.
San Diego ranks fifth in wRC+ and sixth in wOBA this season. It ranks 11th in SLG, fifth in OBP and 20th in ISO.
The Padres also have the highest batting average in baseball to this point. San Diego ranks only 24th in walk rate but has the lowest strikeout rate in the league.
The Padres are 19th in hard-hit rate, 26th in barrel rate and 13th in exit velocity this season. Despite these mediocre contact metrics, they have the second-highest line drive rate in the league.
Combine this with not striking out, and they've been able to put enough balls in play to score plenty of runs this season.
Tigers vs Padres Prediction & Run Line Betting Analysis
The Padres are heavy favorites in this matchup, as they rightfully should be. They'll have the better pitcher on the mound tonight and have had the better offense this season.
With it not being entirely confirmed that Madden will be the starter tonight and instead may be used in a relief role, books don’t have the full menu of lines open at this point.
I’d prefer waiting for a F5 run line on the Padres, but at the time of writing, this isn’t an option, so instead, I’ll opt to take San Diego on the run line at -1.5, which is currently priced at +100.
Pick: Padres -1.5 Runs (+100, Play to -105)
Moneyline
Petco Park has been friendly to the Padres this season as they're 37-31 at home. Detroit is 35-34 straight up both at home and on the road this season.
I obviously like San Diego to win this game, but at -198, this price is a little too steep for me to want to lay these heavy odds.
If this falls more into your betting style then feel free to fire away on this as I do think the Padres will win tonight.
Run Line (Spread)
The Padres are 69-68 against the spread this season but just 29-39 ATS at home. The Tigers are 73-65 ATS overall, including 40-29 on the road.
As mentioned previously, this is my best bet for the night. At +100, I believe this to be a valuable price on the Padres run line. This is a solid team competing for a playoff spot against a team that's likely eliminated from contention at this point.
Over/Under
Padres home games are 41-26-1 to the over this season. Detroit games are 37-29-3 to the over this season as well, so these basic trends would point towards a potentially higher-scoring affair.
I don’t have a lean on the total one way or another. Neither offense hits the ball particularly hard, but San Diego doesn’t strike out and puts a ton of balls into play, which may be an issue for Madden.
I don’t know how many runs may be scored by San Diego in this one, so I’d prefer to stay away from the total.
Tigers vs Padres Betting Trends
- 88% of the bets and 92% of the money are on the Padres on the moneyline.
- 76% of the bets and 75% of the money are on the over.
- 88% of the bets and 98% of the money are on the Padres to cover the run line.
Tigers Betting Trends
- Tigers are 3-2 in their last 5 games.
- Tigers are 1-4 in their last 5 games against the spread (ATS).
- Tigers are 40-29 in their road games against the spread.
- The totals have gone OVER in 1 of Tigers' last 5 games.
- The totals have gone OVER in 33 of Tigers' 69 last games at home.
Padres Betting Trends
- Padres are 2-3 in their last 5 games.
- Padres are 1-4 in their last 5 games against the spread.
- Padres are 40-29 in their road games against the spread.
- The totals have gone OVER in 2 of Padres' last 5 games.
- The totals have gone OVER in 41 of Padres' 68 last games at home.
