Diamondbacks vs. Braves Predictions
| Diamondbacks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -115 | 9.5 100o / -120u | +180 |
| Braves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -105 | 9.5 100o / -120u | -218 |
The Arizona Diamondbacks will finish out the weekend series against the Atlanta Braves early on Sunday as +175 moneyline underdogs. The Snakes will call on Ryne Nelson to get some outs, opposed to the wily veteran Chris Sale on the Braves' side.
Let's dig into the MLB odds and make a Diamondbacks vs. Braves prediction for Sunday.
Arizona Diamondbacks
Fresh off a shocking World Series appearance, the Arizona Diamondbacks have come out of the gates a little shaky, entering Sunday’s game at 5-4. We have to remember, the Diamondbacks finished the regular season at 84-78 in a Wild Card spot before catching fire in the postseason.
Many wondered if Corbin Carroll could continue his dominance from his rookie year, and it hasn’t happened so far. Carroll is the Diamondbacks' worst statistical hitter, posting a .592 OPS with a 66 OPS+. The good news? Carroll has an elite .365 OBP, so he’s walking plenty despite not hitting the ball yet.
Although Carroll isn’t hitting, the Diamondbacks' offense hasn’t suffered. Ketel Marte has picked up the slack, hitting .389 with an incredibly strong 150 wRC+. Marte finished last year with a solid 127 wRC+ after a down season in 2021, but he looks like the NL Player of the Month right now. Another huge contributor is Lourdes Gurriel Jr., who re-signed with the Diamondbacks after proving himself as a big-time bat in the middle of the order. Gurriel is currently hitting over .350 with a 1.031 OPS and three home runs as the cherry on top.
Pitching is another story for the Diamondbacks. Nelson will get the ball to finish the series, and he’ll look to bounce back from his 2.2 innings of five-hit, four-run ball against the Yankees. Nelson flashed velocity, ranging from 95-99 mph on his fastball, but couldn’t locate it — leading to four Yankees walks. He’ll need to throw strikes and provide length after a shorter outing from Brandon Pfaadt on Saturday.
The bullpen situation is another potential landmine to monitor. With Paul Sewald on the shelf, the Diamondbacks' bullpen is shorter and much less effective. When you don’t have a go-to closing option, it pushes other relievers into different roles, which hasn’t fared well so far.
Atlanta Braves
The Braves' reclamation project, Chris Sale, will look to expand upon his strong first outing for Braves — tossing two-run ball over 5.1 innings with seven strikeouts. While Sale doesn’t have the electric 97-99 mph fastball anymore, he’s still a dominant pitcher. It just comes down to staying healthy. Another plus from Sale pitching is Joc Pederson sitting. The D-backs likely will role with Randal Grichuk over Pederson to get the proper righty/lefty matchup in place.
On offense, the Braves have more lineup flexibility against right-handed pitching, which leads to much scarier production. Jarred Kelenic (207 wRC+) is a strict platoon bat from the left side, while fellow lefties Matt Olson (151 wRC+) and Michael Harris II (153 wRC+) bring a little extra punch against righty pitching.
It’s always interesting to see how an MVP winner performs the next season. So far, Ronald Acuña Jr. hasn’t found the same success in 2024. There’s some concerning numbers to back up Acuña's scuffling start to the year, particularly his 32.4% K rate — up from an unsustainable 11.4% last year. What made Acuña so special last year was his ability to put the ball in play, which turned into a 70-steal season. Acuña isn’t just not making contact, he’s not making good contact, either. He’s yet to hit a home run and has just one steal, well off his 73-steal pace from last year.
Diamondbacks vs. Braves
Betting Pick & Prediction
The total sailed over in the first two games of the series, and I don’t expect anything different this time. We’re looking at two of the best offenses in the National League, with very shaky pitching options. That should lead to a barrage of runs.
I could see Nelson lasting four or fewer innings, leading to the Diamondbacks relying on an overworked bullpen for six or seven innings. That’s a dream scenario for Over backers.
Pick: Over 9.5
