Diamondbacks vs Brewers Odds
| Diamondbacks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -142 | 8 -110o / -110u | +150 |
| Brewers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +120 | 8 -110o / -110u | -180 |
Diamondbacks vs. Brewers odds have Milwaukee favored in Game 1 of this National League Wild Card series.
The Diamondbacks are back in the playoffs for the first time since 2017 after narrowly edging out the Cubs for one of the final two wild-card spots. Arizona comes into the playoffs with some of the worst offensive numbers of any team in the postseason, but is an elite defensive and baserunning team, so will be a brute to play against.
Milwaukee won the NL Central and is back in the playoffs for the fifth time in six years. The Brewers were dealt a pretty big blow on Monday, however, as manager Craig Counsell announced that No. 2 starter Brandon Woodruff, who had been pitching so well since returning from injury, is going to miss this series and possibly the entire postseason.
Let's preview Game 1 and make our Diamondbacks vs. Brewers pick.
Arizona Diamondbacks
Brandon Pfaadt has a very interesting profile as a starting pitcher. He had a horrible first half of the season with an xFIP well above five, got sent down to the minors, started five games, got called back up to get shelled on June 29th for six runs in just two innings, got sent down again, made two starts in the minors, and then got called up once again to the majors.
Ever since he got called up on July 22nd, he's been awesome. In his 13 starts since being called up, he's put solid numbers: 3.9 xFIP, 9.65 K/9 rate and 2.10 BB/9 rate.
What's even more impressive about Pfaadt is the control he has over his entire arsenal. Not only is a very low 2.10 BB/9 rate an indicator of that, but he also has a 106 Location+ rating since July 22nd along with a 103 Stuff+ rating. That means his Pitching+ is sitting 107, which is top 20 in baseball over that same time frame.
As you can see above, Pfaadt's best pitch by far is his slider, which has a Stuff+ rating of 113 and is holding opposing hitters to a .249 xwOBA. Milwaukee's offense was a combined -70.8 run value against fastballs and sliders this season. the only teams that were worse were the Tigers, White Sox and Athletics.
The Diamondbacks' offense really doesn't grade out well in a lot of metrics. They have a .317 wOBA and 97 wRC+, which is in the bottom half of Major League Baseball. They are a very patient lineup, though, with the fourth-lowest walk rate and one of the lowest chase rates in baseball.
When they get on the base paths, they cause so much havoc. The Diamondbacks lead Major League Baseball in Speed Score and weighted stolen bases, while finishing second to only the Reds with 166 stolen bases.
They are also one of the best defensive teams in baseball, having the second-best UZR, which is used to measure fielding, comparing the event that actually happened (hit/out/error) to data on similarly hit balls in the past to determine how much better or worse the fielder did than the "average" player.
Milwaukee Brewers
There is no denying that Corbin Burnes is one of the best pitchers in baseball and that he might have the best singular pitch in the entire game: his cutter.
Burnes over the last 30 days has the best Stuff+ rating in baseball at 137 because of his cutter, which is sitting with an absurd rating of 207.
Corbin Burnes, K'ing the Side in the 1st…and is fired up. 🔥
His back door cutter is baaaack. pic.twitter.com/NmaZtTr2po
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) September 16, 2023
He throws that pitch 55% of the time with opposing hitters only posting a .209 batting average against it. He faced the Diamondbacks twice this season with completely different results. In April, he went eight scoreless innings with the Diamondbacks only having two hard hits on his cutter. Then in June, he got roughed up for seven runs and the Diamondbacks hit his cutter hard five times.
Even though Burnes has unreal stuff, he can be flustered trying to hold runners when they get on base. As you can see below, his walk rate, HR/9 rate, and batting average allowed goes up pretty significantly when runners are on base, which does not bode well going up against the best base running team in baseball.
Additionally, either William Contreras or Victor Caratini will be behind the plate for Milwaukee and both have been very poor at throwing out runners. Caratini is 3-for-31 in throwing out base stealers, while Contreras is 10-for-57.
Milwaukee's lineup has been very below average for a majority of the season, but especially post All-Star break. Over the second half of the season, the Brewers have just a .317 wOBA, which is 17th in MLB. Additionally, for the season they only have a 90 wRC+ against right-handed pitching, which is 24th in baseball.
Diamondbacks vs. Brewers
Betting Pick & Prediction
Even though Milwaukee has advantages in the starting pitching matchup and in the bullpen, I don't think those advantages outweigh how bad this offense has been.
Additionally, the Diamondbacks have big-time advantages on the base paths and defensively, so if Pfaadt can give them a solid five or six innings and they can get some baserunners on against Burnes, they have a decent shot at pulling off an upset here in Game 1.
I have the Diamondbacks projected at +128 and our Action Network PRO Projections have the Diamondbacks at +142, so there is value in taking Arizona at +165.
