Diamondbacks vs Dodgers Pick & Odds | NLDS Game 1 Preview for MLB Playoffs
Getty Images. Pictured: Corbin Carroll and Clayton Kershaw
Diamondbacks vs Dodgers odds opened with the NL West champions as significant favorites over their division rivals.
After sweeping the Brewers in a surprising Wild Card Round win, the Diamondbacks move on to to take on the Dodgers in the NLDS.
The Diamondbacks put an impressive offensive and bullpen showing in their two games in Milwaukee to reach the NLDS for the first time since 2017, when they were swept by the Dodgers. They will send Merrill Kelly to the mound to try and steal Game 1.
Los Angeles once again was the champions of the NL West after winning 100 games on its way to the two seed in the National League. While they have one of the best lineups and bullpens in baseball, the Dodgers' pitching is very suspect coming into the postseason.
Currently it will be a less-than-100-percent Clayton Kershaw, Bobby Miller, Ryan Pepiot and Lance Lynn as their main four pitchers, so they could be very vulnerable to an upset here if those four guys do not pitch well in this series.
Here is my Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers pick for Game 1.
Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks Game 1 Odds
| Diamondbacks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -125 | 8.5 -105o / -115u | +164 |
| Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +104 | 8.5 -105o / -115u | -196 |
Arizona Diamondbacks
Merrill Kelly fits the description of "average MLB starting pitcher" pretty perfectly. He finished the season with a 4.10 xERA, which is around league average, and as you can see below, other than getting batters to chase, he's really not elite at anything else, but he's also not horrific in any category either.
While he is perfectly average, his split home versus away from Chase Field have been pretty drastic.
- Home: 10.19 K/9, 3.46 BB/9, 0.86 HR/9, .183 AVG, 1.02 WHIP, 3.40 xFIP
- Away: 8.68 K/9, 3.54 BB/9, 1.18 HR/9, .261 AVG, 1.38 WHIP, 4.33 xFIP
Kelly can be effective because of his ability to mix his pitches. He has six different pitches in his arsenal and doesn't throw any of them more than 30% of the time. The problem for Kelly is he doesn't have much velocity, only averaging 92.2 mph on his fastball.
Kelly has to be on point with his command and control, which he has been this season. Overall he only has a 92 Stuff+ rating, but his Location+ is at 105, which is top 10 in Major League Baseball.
Despite what happened in the Wild Card Round, the Diamondbacks' offense really doesn't grade out well in a lot of metrics. They have a .317 wOBA and 97 wRC+, which is in the bottom half of Major League Baseball. They are a very patient lineup, though, with the fourth-lowest walk rate and one of the lowest chase rates in baseball.
When they get on the base paths, they cause so much havoc. The Diamondbacks lead Major League Baseball in Speed Score and weighted stolen bases, while finishing second to only the Reds with 166 stolen bases.
They are also one of the best defensive teams in baseball, having the second-best UZR, which is used to measure fielding, comparing the event that actually happened (hit/out/error) to data on similarly hit balls in the past to determine how much better or worse the fielder did than the "average" player. They will have advantages over the Dodgers on the base paths and in the field.
Los Angeles Dodgers
Kershaw is clearly not 100% coming into the postseason and even though he has a 2.46 ERA, a lot of his underlying metrics are pretty bad — in fact, his worst in over a decade. He’s sitting with 4.03 xERA, 3.57 xFIP, both are his worst since 2011. All of this has been masked by an unprecedented 89.3% strand rate, which was the highest among qualified starting pitchers this season.
Kershaw also isn’t lasting too long into games anymore. Since he returned from a shoulder injury on August 10th, he’s only gone beyond five innings one time, so my guess is he will be on a short leash for that reason and the fact that his stuff just isn’t very good anymore. Before the injury, his Stuff+ rating was at 108, but after the injury it’s at a measly 83.
That means this game is likely going rest in the hands of the Dodgers bullpen, which has been excellent this season. Since the All-Star break, Los Angeles’ bullpen had the best ERA, third-best xFIP and second-best K-BB ratio.
The Dodgers' offense is what has carried them to over 100 wins and the number two seed in these NL playoffs. Over the second half of the season, the Dodgers had the fourth-best wOBA and wRC+.
What makes the Dodgers so good is their patience at the plate. They had the second highest walk rate and fourth lowest chase rate in baseball. They’re going to make life incredibly difficult on Kelly, who they’ve had mixed results against this season.
Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers
Betting Pick & Prediction
The Dodgers really do have a good matchup here in Game 1, but Kershaw's clear decline in his stuff because of the injury sort of throws everything for a loop. His last start of the regular season was the first time since returning from the injury where he lasted more than five innings.
We also have to remember, him lasting deep into the game is not only a matter of can he physically do, but also avoiding trouble against an offense that is gaining confidence after their performance in the Wild Card Round.
I have the Dodgers projected at -173 and the total at 8.2, so there really is no value on the side or total for me. Instead I am going to back Kershaw's total pitching outs Under 16.5 because there are so many things that would have to go right for him to make it into the sixth inning.
Pick: Clayton Kershaw Pitching Outs Under 15.5 (-103 via BetRivers)
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