Despite the fact that Clayton Kershaw was the only Dodgers pitcher even to hit the 130 inning plateau this season, they ran away with the NL West with a record of 100-62. Their most dominant strengths lied elsewhere, and they give cause for our two prop plays Saturday.
Let's get into our Diamondbacks vs Dodgers props.
Diamondbacks vs Dodgers Props
Starters not eating innings the way they used to has been a notable theme in MLB again this season, and that trend continued in the wildcard round. Starters averaged only 14.9 outs per game in those series, a sample which included a number of true number one aces.
Granted the game dynamic is a little different than Game 1 of a best-of-five, but Kershaw should fit the bill to continue the shorter playoff start trend.
The Dodgers enter this game well-rested with a number of quality options in their bullpen and an off day coming Sunday. There will be no reason to stretch an ailing Kershaw more than need be if he is not dominating, and his recent underlying results suggest this one could go either way.
It is well known that Kershaw has still been battling a shoulder injury down the stretch. His fastball velocity sat below 89 mph last time out, which is concerning, even for someone who can creatively work without without much velocity at all. He owns an xFIP of 4.35 since returning on August 10th, and a FIP of 5.48. His underlying numbers aren't matching up with a 2.03 ERA during that span, so fading him in some fashion Saturday seems reasonable.
Kershaw has not recorded more than 16 outs since June 27th, a stretch of eight consecutive appearances. The argument against that sample would be that the Dodgers had no need to force him deep into any of those games. Realistically that remains the same Saturday though considering the options lying in wait.
The fact that Kershaw might actually be somewhat of a paper tiger right now coincides well with the logic that regardless L.A. should not plan on him going deep into this game. Even at a price of -155 I feel there is some clear value betting Kershaw to record 16.5 outs or less.
Los Angeles lit Kelly up for seven earned runs from 12 hits on August 29th, and the Dodgers should be well situated to do damage again in game 1. The Dodgers finished with the second-best offense in the league versus right-handed pitching with a wRC+ of 117.
The off-day Sunday helps to be sure, but the Diamondbacks will still be far more keen than L.A. to see Kelly finish five-plus innings here given a shakier pitching situation elsewhere. That's a good thing. We definitely want some leash here for Kelly to allow our three earned runs.
Across all competitions Kelly finished with a 4.14 xERA this season. That's a lot different than this Dodgers lineup, who will be seeing him for the third time in a two month span. Opponents held a 38% chase percentage with runners in scoring position versus Kelly this season and a strong 32.9% clip overall. The Dodgers chased just 26% of pitches this year, and they should have a good understanding of where to find success versus Kelly.
