Diamondbacks vs. Marlins Odds
| Diamondbacks Odds | +135 |
| Marlins Odds | -160 |
| Over/Under | 6.5 |
| Time | 6:40 p.m. ET |
| TV | MLB.TV |
The Marlins had won seven straight games before dropping Sunday’s series finale to the Mariners. Still winners of eight of their last 10, the Marlins are off to a 12-9 start and sit in second place in the NL East.
The Diamondbacks finished the worst record in the league last season, going just 62-110. However, according to their Expected Record (based on run differential), they under performed by nine wins. While they are still a far cry from World Series contenders, they are at least playing to a more respectable 10-13 record early on this year.
No team in the National League has more wins over the last 10 games than the Marlins. With two exciting young arms on the mound Monday, what is the best bet in the series opener between the fish and snakes?
Gallen Emerging for the Diamondbacks
It took a little longer than expected, but it looks like we are finally seeing the breakout for Zac Gallen (RHP). Through his first three starts this year, Gallen has been brilliant. He has allowed just six hits and one run while striking out 15.
Gallen’s 0.60 ERA is the fourth-lowest among any starter with at least 15 innings pitched. He leads the league in WHIP and has yet to allow a home run. Opponents have just a .173 wOBA against him as both his fastball and curveball have been nearly untouchable.
While the Snakes’ pitching has been solid, the offense has been lacking. Arizona's offense has been one of the worst in the league, ranking just 29th in wOBA and wRC+. The one bright side is they actually sit ninth in Hard Hit percentage, so at least they have been making good contact.
Arizona’s best player is probably Ketel Marte, but he is batting just .151 with a .215 wOBA on the year. Pavin Smith leads the team with just a measly .258 average and .351 wOBA. However, Daulton Varsho has one of the highest Hard Hit percentages in the league.
Lopez Has Been Elite for the Marlins
As good as Gallen has been, Pablo Lopez (RHP) has maybe been better. The Marlins are 4-0 in Lopez’s starts this year, and he has allowed just one run in 23 1/3 innings for a 0.39 ERA. No pitcher in the league has pitched more innings while allowing one run or fewer.
One reason for Lopez’s early success has been the improvement of his changeup. He throws it 35% of the time and is allowing just a .129 batting average while racking up 11 strikeouts. His changeup looks almost identical to his fastball but averages just 87.6 miles per hour, down from his fastball at 94.1 mph.
Pablo López, 93mph Fastball and 88mph Changeup, Overlay/Slow pic.twitter.com/oXuzqIHg82
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 27, 2022
Miami had one of the worst offenses in the entire league last year. Only Pittsburgh scored fewer runs than the Marlins, and they had the lowest wOBA in the league. Good news is, they have been much better this year, sitting middle of the pack in wOBA and wRC+, and ranking sixth over the last two weeks.
While nothing overly flashy, the Marlins brought in some solid bats this offseason with Avisail Garcia, Joey Wendle, Jacob Stallings and World Series MVP Jorge Soler. Jazz Chisholm is still the star of this team and is batting .357 over the last week. He ranks 10th in the league in wOBA this year.
Diamondbacks-Marlins Pick
While these two pitchers aren’t exactly household names to the casual baseball fan, this is one of the best pitching matchups we’ve had to this point in the season. Gallen and Lopez have combined to allow two runs in 38 1/3 innings. Neither has allowed a home run, and they’ve totaled 37 strikeouts.
Gallen has shut down the Mets (twice) and the Dodgers, two of the best offenses in the league. Now he will make his first start against his former team, after Miami traded him for Chisholm at the 2019 deadline. Miami has hit the ball better than last season but still isn't exactly the most feared lineup.
Arizona’s offense is one of the worst in baseball, ranking dead last in wOBA. Sure, they make hard contact, but they also strikeout the second-most of any team. Lopez has been lights out and should have no problem handling this lineup.
The under between these two teams is 29-15. These have been two of the nine most profitable under teams in the league this season. When these two pitchers get the start, they are a combined 5-2 to the under. I’ll back Under 6.5 at +104 on BetRivers and would play it to -110.
Pick: Under 6.5 (+104)
