Updated Diamondbacks vs. Mets Odds
| Diamondbacks Odds | +135 |
| Mets Odds | -160 |
| Over/Under | 8 |
| Time | 1:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | MLB.TV |
| Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here. | |
Carlos Carrasco and the New York Mets host Zac Gallen and the Arizona Diamondbacks on Saturday for the second meeting of a three-game set.
This will be Gallen’s first outing on the 2022 campaign, but Carrasco has a nice start under his belt, where he only allowed one run on only two hits. As usual, Carrasco has exceled in Chase Rate and not walking batters, but he did allow some hard contact.
That said, the Diamondbacks don't have the most potent lineup. The Mets are revamped this season and should be poised to win this game outright, even if Arizona’s ace is on the hill. The market is giving far too much credit to Gallen and the Diamondbacks in this matchup.
Diamondbacks Hope for More Behind Gallen
Gallen is primarily a fastball pitcher. He utilizes his four-seamer around 54% of the time and defaults to his off-speed pitches the rest of the time. However, his out pitch will be used when in a desperate situation.
He might encounter some problems, unless he mixes his arsenal because this Mets team loves hitting similarly-profiled righty pitchers. On four-seamers from 91-95 MPH (Gallen throws about 93), the Mets have 11 rostered batters hitting over a .355 xwOBA. Yes, Robinson Canó only has 58 of these pitches against him, but the point stands: they should feast on Gallen’s pitch selection, especially if history is any indicator.
The redeeming quality for the Diamondacks is their bullpen. They currently have a 2.84 ERA on the young season, but this doesn't tell the entire story. Arizona also has a 4.50 xFIP, meaning it has definitely been lucky in the early going. Luke Weaver, Kyle Nelson and Noe Ramirez are all decent options in relief, but this should not be a massive part of this handicap is Gallen departs this game, having given up four-plus runs.
Lastly, this is the same old lineup. They only hold a 73 wRC+ and .296 OBP against righties this season. These numbers were 79 and .302 last season. The Diamondbacks aren't better and even if Carrasco permits some hard contact on occasion, nothing about this lineup indicates success in this matchup.
Mets Playing Shorthanded
Now, of the 11 Mets players mentioned above, two are now likely out for this game. Brandon Nimmo and Mark Canha both tested positive for COVID-19, but even with this information, the Mets' subs should be able to handle the outfield duties with no problem.
Brandon Nimmo and Mark Canha are both OUT today for the Mets after testing positive for COVID, per @NYPost_Metspic.twitter.com/G3YnW7jivr
— Action Network MLB (@ActionNetMLB) April 15, 2022
The New York bullpen has been a little lackluster so far, though. The results are a bit worse than the process, because they have a 4.15 ERA and 3.04 xFIP. The Mets haven't been getting lucky, but outside of Carrasco, they have plenty of strong options once he leaves the outing. Drew Smith, Seth Lugo, Edwin Díaz and Adam Ottavino are relatively strong in comparison. That said, this is a pretty underrated back-end of the bullpen.
Carrasco has a similar fastball to Gallen. Alternatively, he only threw it 22% of the time in his first start. This is interesting because he went with his fastball a little less than 40% last season. Either way, his off-speed pitches consist of a change-up, slider and curveball.
However, on change-ups and sliders, this Arizona lineup only has two batters posting above a .340 xwOBA, dating back to the beginning of the 2021 season. Look for Carrasco to have another decent outing and hand the lead off to a lethal bullpen.
Diamondbacks-Mets Pick
The Mets are the far better team here. Gallen is a good starter, but the rest of this Arizona team isn't strong. The lineup doesn't pair well with Carrasco or the relief options who will pitch.
On the other side, the Mets match up excellent facing Gallen’s fastball. As a fastball-ready team, they should be able to jump on Gallen out of the gates and put up some early runs.
Take the New York moneyline at -135 and play it to -150 odds. The market is overrating the Diamondbacks.
Pick: New York ML (-135 | play to -150)
