Diamondbacks vs. Phillies NLCS Game 7 is tonight at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia. The Phillies are favored at -172 on the moneyline, while the Diamondbacks are underdogs at +144.
The total has primarily moved to 8 after opening at 8.5, with juice now at -110 to the over and -110 to the under. On the run line, a spread of Phillies -1.5 is +120, while Diamondbacks +1.5 is -144.
There are plenty of ways to bet this huge MLB playoff matchup, and our analysts have three plays worth recommending, including a play on the total and two props.
Here are our best bets, picks and predictions for Phillies vs Diamondbacks Game 7 on Tuesday, October 24.
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Diamondbacks vs. Phillies Game 7 Odds
| Diamondbacks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -144 | 8 -110o / -110u | +142 |
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +120 | 8 -110o / -110u | -168 |
Under 8.5
-105 at BetMGM
Brandon Pfaadt was excellent in his last start against the Phillies, going 5 2/3 innings, giving up only two hits, no runs and striking out nine of the 18 batters he faced. But Torey Lovullo did not want him to face the order a third time and yanked him to go to the bullpen, which turned out to be the right decision.
Pfaadt had a rough start to the season, so his overall metrics don't look great, but since he got called back up to the majors on July 22nd he's been outstanding.
In his final 13 starts of the regular season, he had a 3.9 xFIP, 9.65 K/9 rate and 2.10 BB/9 rate. He's continued that into the playoffs where he has a 2.81 xFIP in 12 2/3 innings with 15 strikeouts and just one walk.
Pfaadt now has control over his entire arsenal, hence the incredibly low walk rate. Since he returned to the majors on July 22nd, he has a 107 Pitching+ rating, which was top 20 in baseball.
Ranger Suarez put up some pretty average numbers during the regular season, but he's turned it on during the postseason. In 14 innings, he's only given up one run on seven hits with 13 strikeouts. He completely shut down the Diamondbacks in Game 3 of the series mainly because it's a fantastic matchup for him.
The Diamondbacks were 21st in baseball in wOBA against left-handed pitching and against Suarez's five-pitch combination of sinker, fastball, curveball, changeup and cutter they had a -16.1 run value this season.
With this being a winner-take-all game, everyone is available in both bullpens, which could be heavily utilized here in Game 7.
I only have 8.1 runs projected for this game, so I like the value on Under 8.5 runs at -105.
Use our BetMGM bonus code for bonus bets before making your Diamondbacks-Phillies Game 7 pick.
Bryce Harper Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI
-115 at DraftKings
By Doug Ziefel
I don't like to start a play off by touting an intangible as a factor, but it's the truth. Bryce Harper has been the guy for the Phillies in October for the past two seasons.
Last season, he hit .349 with six homers and 13 RBI in 17 games. This postseason, he's hitting .316 with five homers and eight RBI. If the Phillies are going to win this game, there's a good chance he's a big part of the offensive output.
In addition to that, Harper and the Phillies will be getting their second look at Brandon Pfaadt in this series after he dominated them in Game 3. Plus, for all the Phillies' struggles in that matchup, Harper was just one of two Phillies not to strike out against Pfaadt, and his average exit velocity of 92 mph suggests that he may be due for a hit as the sample size increases tonight.
Lastly, we're getting solid line value on this over. Harper has gone over this total in 59 percent of games played this season, which gives us implied odds of -144.
Play to -125.
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Ranger Suarez Over 10.5 Outs Recorded
-140 at BetMGM
By D.J. James
Ranger Suárez has been a rock in the playoff rotation for the Philadelphia Phillies. He has always been a primarily ground-ball pitcher and will not necessarily blow batters away.
His 48.8% ground-ball rate mitigates the damage. In three playoff starts, including one against the Arizona Diamondbacks, he has allowed seven hits and one earned run over 14 innings. He also only has two walks.
The Arizona Diamondbacks may have six batters above a 100 wRC+ in the playoffs, but against lefties in the regular season since August 1, they had a .699 OPS and 89 wRC+. This was definitely subpar and more likely a picture of what we will see with Suárez at the helm for the Phillies.
In addition, the Phillies only have two arms below a 4.00 xFIP in the relief staff for the playoffs. They only have one arm below a 10% walk rate and only two are above a 20% strikeout rate. This is not a reliable relief staff in crunch time, even at home.
Manager Rob Thomson clearly showed more confidence in Suárez in his last start, letting him throw more than five innings, so he could do the same thing here.
Take Suárez’s outs over 10.5 (-140) and play to 12.
