Throughout the Major League Baseball playoffs, I will provide a daily breakdown summarizing my thoughts on futures and individual games for that day.
Below, I will address how to handle betting on these playoff series, whether on the series moneyline or a game-by-game basis, while using my daily MLB Model projections.
You can find my projections for every MLB game in the Action Network App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub (which you can bookmark).
You can also shop for the best lines on our odds page.
Using my projections, where can we find actionable value on Monday's NLCS Game 7 between the Arizona Diamondbacks and Philadelphia Phillies?
New to FanDuel? Get started today with Action Network's FanDuel promo code!
Series Moneyline Corner
I'll discuss my price for Diamondbacks-Phillies Game 7 below, but note that any bet on any bet on a Phillies-Diamondbacks Game 7 moneyline, series price, or NL pennant price should reflect the same opinion. Check all three markets — you may find a pricing discrepancy within the same book.
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Philadelphia Phillies Game 7
| Diamondbacks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -142 | 8 -115o / -105u | +145 |
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +120 | 8 -115o / -105u | -175 |
Brandon Pfaadt vs. Ranger Suárez (full projections here)
Game 7 of the NLCS is a rematch of Game 3 of this series, albeit at a different venue. And we have very recent betting market data surrounding these teams with this exact pitching matchup.
Arizona closed as +105 home underdogs (48.8% implied), with the Phillies as -125 road favorites (55.6% implied) in Game 3.
After adjusting for home field, you would expect to find the Phillies closer to -170 in the same pitching matchup at home, with the Diamondbacks near +145, and that's about where the market currently standings — with Philadelphia as low as -155, and Arizona as high as +146 for Game 7.
I projected the Diamondbacks as -112 favorites (52.8% implied) for Game 3, typically making them closer to +123 (44.8% implied) on the road in the same matchup. However, after factoring in more bullpen usage for both teams, I make Arizona's Game 7 line +128 (43.9% implied), a decrease of closer to nine percent relative to their Game 3 chances.
As a result, I'm in a similar situation with the Diamondbacks for Game 7 as I was for Game 6: I show value on Arizona's moneyline (to +139), but I'm less inclined than most to hedge against my NL pennant or World Series futures.
If you only bet the Phillies to win the NL pennant (at +700) and are looking to hedge that ticket in a possible Game 7, use our hedging calculator:
Before the NLCS, Game 3 was the one spot I had circled to bet Arizona at plus money, with Brandon Pfaadt (4.22 ERA, 4.06 xFIP, and 19.1% K-BB%, 103 Pitching+ over his final 12 starts of the season) providing Arizona with a rare starting pitching advantage.
However, I'm factoring in more of Philadelphia's bullpen over the first five innings alongside Ranger Suárez (4.36 xERA, 4.05 xFIP, 97 Pitching+), who has been incredible this postseason (14 IP, 7 H, 1 R, 2 BB, 13 K), but still projects as a lesser arm than throwing a new reliever each inning in a winner-take-all game.
As a result, I don't give Arizona as much of a projected pitching advantage in the first five innings (F5) for Game 7 as I did in Game 3, but I still see a comparable bullpen edge for the Phillies.
Pfaaft was dominant in that outing, generating a remarkable 41% called strike plus whiff rate (CSW%). He has the best stuff — but the shakiest command — of the three Diamondbacks starters, and seemingly has a higher ceiling — if he can harness his command — than even Zac Gallen.
He'll continue to emphasize his fastballs and sweeper against righties while mixing his changeup against lefties. But I wouldn't expect him to see Kyle Schwarber or Bryce Harper a third time, even if he's effective. Torey Luvollo pulled Pfaaft after turning over the lineup twice in Game 3 (5 2/3 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 9 K).
Suárez can limit the Diamondbacks' running game (he has only allowed nine steals on 16 career attempts), which Arizona finally got going in Game 6. Still, I would expect him to see just 10 or 11 hitters in Game 7 and get the hook before facing the righties sitting in the middle and bottom of the Diamondbacks' order a second time (career 2.74 xFIP vs. lefties, 4.20 xFIP vs. righties).
After getting a quick hook in the divisional round against the Braves, the strikeout and outs recorded props for Suárez opened too low for Game 3; I bet Over 2.5 Strikeouts (-175), Over 13.5 Outs (-140), and Over 1.5 Walks (-110). Those props closed at -210, -170, and -125 respectively.
Pfaadt's Game 3 props closed at 3.5 strikeouts (-120 to the Over) and 10.5 Outs (-125 to the Over).
I would bet the Unders in Game 7 for Suárez, even if we got the Game 3 closing prices: +160 on Under 2.5 strikeouts and +120 on Under 13.5 outs. The Game 3 closing lines for Pfaaft seem pretty appropriate for potential Game 7 usage, but I'd consider betting Unders if they move up.
We will also bet. Pfaaft pitched around him in Game 3 (one of five pitches inside the strike zone), and the Diamondbacks continued to pitch around in him in Game 6, as they have done all series — throwing around 35% of pitches in the strike zone to Harper (41.9% zone rate in 2023; 44.4% career).
I set the Game 7 total at 7.76 runs and would bet Under 8.5 to -120 or Under 8 to -101.
And to reiterate, you can bet Arizona at +139 at an actionable edge compared to my projection. I have to decide whether I want to — which would hedge off part of my Phillies futures.
Sides and Totals for Tuesday, October 24
- Under 8.5 (-105, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to -120 or 8.5, -101)
Prop Bets for Tuesday, October 24
- Brandon Pfaaft, Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-149, 0.2u) at Caesars (bet to -150)
- Brandon Pfaaft, Over 1.5 Walks (+173, 0.1u) at Caesars (bet to +160)
- Bryce Harper, Over 0.5 Wallks (-120, 0.1u) at DraftKings (bet to -140)
- Ranger Suarez, Under 3.5 Hits Allowed (-110, 0.1u) at DraftKings (bet to -120)
