Diamondbacks vs. Phillies Game 6 Odds
| Diamondbacks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -140 | 8 -106o / -114u | +154 |
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +116 | 8 -106o / -114u | -184 |
Diamondbacks vs Phillies odds for NLCS Game 6 see Philadelphia as a strong -184 favorite on the moneyline at home to advance to the World Series. The Diamondbacks, who are trying to force a Game 7, are +154 moneyline underdogs.
The total in this game has been set at 8, juiced at -106 to the over and -114 to the under with Merrill Kelly on the mound for the Diamondbacks and Aaron Nola toeing the rubber for the Phillies.
On the run line, a -1.5 spread for the Phillies is +116, while at +1.5, the Diamondbacks are -140.
Here is a betting pick and preview for Diamondbacks vs Phillies NLCS Game 6 on Monday, October 23.
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Arizona Diamondbacks
The Diamondbacks will hand the ball to Merrill Kelly with their season on the line. Despite the lopsided 10-0 score in his Game 2 start, it was 2-0 through five innings before things really went sideways. Kelly struck out six batters and allowed only three hits, The problem was those three hits were all home runs.
During the regular season, Kelly put together the best year of his career, posting a 3.29 ERA. His strikeout rate was a career-best at 25.9%. He did have a few concerning metrics though. His xERA was 4.13 and he also had a career-worst walk rate and hard-hit rate allowed.
Kelly has a terrific changeup, but when he leaves his fastball flat, teams are able to jump on it, as we saw from Philadelphia in Game 2. I expect Kelly to face this lineup only twice through the order, as we have seen the Phillies feast on guys the third time they face them.
Throughout the entire regular season, this Diamondbacks' offense was just league average. They finished the season 17th in wOBA and 18th in wRC+. Their bats have been able to break out this postseason, though, and they have gotten timely hitting off the Phillies' bullpen all series.
Ketel Marte has been the star for Arizona, leading the series with nine hits, including the walk-off in Game 3. Corbin Carroll has been cold at the plate, but Gabriel Moreno has come through in big spots and Alek Thomas has a home run in each of the last two games.
Philadelphia Phillies
It was an inconsistent season for Aaron Nola and a decline from the ace-like performance we have seen from him for many years. Nola had a 4.46 ERA on the season, but his 3.77 xERA implies he got a little unlucky at times.
Since the start of the postseason, Nola has been the horse the Phillies need him to be. He pitched into the sixth inning in all three outings and surrendered just two runs. He has racked up 19 strikeouts and issued just two walks. Nola has not allowed a home run this postseason.
Offensively, the Phillies' lineup is as dangerous as they come. This group seems to feed off each other and hits homers in bunches. Philadelphia has hit a whopping 23 home runs this postseason, with 17 coming in the six games at Citizens Bank Park.
Mr. NLCS Kyle Schwarber has clubbed five home runs in this series alone and took Kelly deep twice in Game 2. Schwarber, Bryce Harper, Brandon Marsh, JT Realmuto and Trea Turner all have at least five hits in this series.
Diamondbacks vs. Phillies
Betting Pick & Prediction
The Phillies have been utterly dominant at Citizens Bank Park in the postseason. They have gone 28-11 at home during Red October since the park opened in 2004. During their run to the World Series last season, the Phillies went 6-2 at home, and this postseason they are 6-0 at the Bank.
Not only has the home crowd super-juiced the offense, but Nola has always been much stronger at home. In his career, Nola has a 4.25 ERA on the road with a 3.20 ERA at home. He is averaging more than six innings per start at home.
His strikeout per nine innings rate is also more than a full strikeout higher at home. Nola has a 10.71 K/9 rate at home, with a 29.7% strikeout rate.
This season has seen even more dramatic splits, with Nola sporting a 3.29 ERA at home and a 5.43 ERA on the road. Nola still ranks in the top 5% of the league in chase rate and has a terrific curveball.
The postseason has been no different. In eight postseason games, Nola is 5-2 with a 3.25 ERA. He has totaled 46 strikeouts in 44 1/3 innings. At home, the Phillies are 4-1 with Nola on the mound in the postseason, including 3-0 this year. He has tallied 29 strikeouts in 28 2/3 innings.
In Game 2 against the Diamondbacks, Nola punched out seven hitters through six innings. Four of those came with that knuckle curve and he generated 11 whiffs, five with his changeup.
Given the recent shakiness of the Phillies' bullpen, I expect manager Rob Thompson to let Nola go as long as he can in this game. Nola has been excellent this postseason, pitching to a 0.96 ERA in three starts and totaling 19 strikeouts in 18 2/3 innings.
If Nola gets through six innings, I expect him to tally at least six strikeouts.
