The Phillies and Diamondbacks earned the first and third NL wild-card spots, respectively, but you would not know it from how each team has performed. Combined, they have just one loss this postseason and they knocked the out Braves and Dodgers, who each won 100 games this season.
Some felt the long layoff hurt the Braves and Dodgers. Now, the Diamondbacks and Phillies will have to deal with that having last played on Wednesday.
With a pair of aces on the mound in Zac Gallen and Zack Wheeler, that might give the advantage to the pitchers.
Let's break it down with a pair of prop bets on Gallen and Wheeler for Diamondbacks-Phillies Game 1.
Diamondbacks vs Phillies Game 1 Props
Zack Wheeler Over 16.5 Outs Recorded
-120 at BetMGM
After posting a 2.78 ERA in six starts last postseason, Zack Wheeler has been dominant once again this year. Through his first two starts in this postseason, he has 2.08 ERA and 18 strikeouts in 13 innings.
Wheeler's strikeout line is at 6.5 and he has gone over that in his first two postseason starts. However, the Diamondbacks were 26th in strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers this season.
Instead, I will be backing Wheeler via his outs recorded line. To hit this line, Wheeler will have to go 5 2/3 innings, which has not been a problem of late. The Phillies' ace has hit this line in 13 of his last 15 starts, completing six innings in all of them.
Wheeler also pitched six innings in both of his starts against the Diamondbacks during the regular season.
Wheeler will be fresh for this start having last pitched last a full week ago. The Phillies' bullpen also has had time to rest as well. However, in a seven-game format, manager Rob Thomson will have to be more judicious about how he manages his bullpen.
With Wheeler starting game 1, bullpen usage likely is not a major concern for him. If Wheeler is his usual self, he will keep the Diamondbacks offense in check.
Pick: Zack Wheeler Over 16.5 Outs Recorded (-120 at BetMGM)
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Zac Gallen Under 5.5 Strikeouts
-142 at FanDuel
Including the postseason, Zac Gallen has averaged 6.3 strikeouts per start this season, but it has been better to back him at home. Gallen has gone over this line in 13 of his 16 home starts in the regular season, averaging 7.5 per start. However, on the road, he went over this line in eight of 18 starts in the regular season.
His first two starts in the playoffs have been on the road and he has gone under in both of those starts as well, finishing with exactly four in both. Gallen has also averaged four strikeouts in his last three starts against the Phillies. He has gone under in both starts in Philadelphia, totaling five strikeouts in 7 1/3 innings.
In addition to the lower strikeout rate, Gallen's ERA nearly doubles on the road (4.42) compared to at Chase Field (2.47). He has a 3.18 ERA this postseason, but he has a 1.32 WHIP and has allowed seven base runners or more in each of his last two starts.
Gallen may not be able to work out of trouble as often against this Phillies lineup and he may give up a home run or two as well.
The Phillies got six runs (four earned) off Gallen in his start in Philadelphia last season. Now, I don't expect that to happen again, but if they get three or four off him and make him throw a lot of pitches, he could be out of the game in five innings.
Given his trends both this season and specifically against the Phillies, it is unlikely that Gallen gets six strikeouts without getting into the sixth or seventh inning. It will also not help his cause that he will be dealing the always raucous Philadelphia crowd, that may be just a tad bit crankier following the Eagles' first loss.
Pick: Zac Gallen Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-142 at FanDuel)
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