The Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Philadelphia Phillies odds for NLCS Game 2 opened with Philadelphia as a strong favorite on the moneyline. The Phillies are -152 to win Game 2, while the Diamondbacks are underdogs at +128.
The total has been set at 7.5 with juice of -110 to the over and -110 to the under. A spread bet on the Diamondbacks +1.5 is -164, while the Phillies -1.5 is +136.
Read on for Diamondbacks vs. Phillies pick and preview for NLCS Game 2.
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Diamondbacks vs. Phillies NLCS Game 2 Odds
| Diamondbacks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -160 | 7.5 -114o / -106u | +136 |
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +130 | 7.5 -114o / -106u | -162 |
Arizona Diamondbacks
Merrill Kelly was solid this season and the clear No. 2 in the rotation for the Snakes. However, his solid numbers still portend regression. His 3.29 ERA masked a 7.8% Barrel Rate, 89.6 mph Average Exit Velocity and 41.8% Hard-Hit Rate. He struck out a decent 25.8% of batters but his walk rate rose from last season to 9.4%. All told, his xERA was 4.13.
Kelly pitched brilliantly against the Dodgers in the NLDS, going 6 1/3 shutout innings and allowing just three hits, but his matchup with the Phillies will be challenging. The lineup hits right-handed pitching up and down the order and should get decent lift on the ball against a pitcher who allows fly balls more than half the time.
The Diamondbacks have obviously broken out offensively in the postseason, but the question is if they can continue that success compared to some rather pedestrian regular season numbers.
From August 1 through the end of the regular season, they posted an 86 wRC+ and .684 OPS, walking 9.2% of the time against a 21.5% strikeout rate — that latter number the most impressive part of their offensive prowess.
In the small postseason sample size, the Diamondbacks have a 133 wRC+ and .866 OPS. They are better against right-handed pitching, however, with seven regulars posting an OPS of .330 or better, and that performance should continue against Aaron Nola and the Phillies' bullpen.
The Snakes' bullpen has also been a surprising story of the postseason, posting a 3.28 xERA through their series with the Brewers and Diamondbacks. However, from August 1 through the end of the regular season they had a 4.42 xFIP, and they have four active arms who held a sub-4.00 xFIP during that same time frame.
They could run into trouble at Citizens Bank Park once Kelly leaves the game.
Philadelphia Phillies
It was an up-and-down and often times hard to parse season for Aaron Nola. He saw his Average Exit Velocity rise while his strikeout rate went down and his walk rate went up. Still, his numbers tell the story of a pitcher who was a bit unlucky as he had a 4.46 ERA against a 3.77 xERA.
He has been sharp in the playoffs, however, allowing just two earned runs over 12 2/3 innings combined against the Marlins and the Braves.
Offensively, the Phillies are one of the most dangerous teams in baseball, particularly against right-handed pitching. From August 1 through the end of the regular season, they had a 119 wRC+ and .822 OPS, to go along with an 8.9% walk rate and 22.8% strikeout rate.
The Phillies have eight batters with an xwOBA of .320 or better in that same time frame, and in two postseason series they have a 137 wRC+ and .877 OPS.
It could be a long night for Kelly and the Diamondbacks' bullpen.
The Phillies' bullpen is improved compared to recent years, but is still due some regression compared to how they have performed in the postseason. They have a 1.55 ERA in October against a 5.15 xFIP with an absurd 93% LOB rate.
Diamondbacks vs. Phillies
Betting Pick & Prediction
We've seen what the Phillies' offense can do dating back to last postseason, and while the Diamondbacks' bats are less certain, I have some confidence they can do what they've done for a majority of the postseason against a vulnerable Nola.
Both bullpens have weaknesses, and I expect offense to win the day. Take the over.
