Game 7 of the NLCS gets underway this evening as the Philadelphia Phillies take on the Arizona Diamondbacks at Citizens Bank Park. It's a winner-takes-all affair after the D'backs tied up the series on Monday night.
Let's dive into my top MLB PrizePicks plays for Diamondbacks-Phillies tonight.
A quick refresher if you aren’t familiar with PrizePicks: You can combine up to five different player squares to pay out up to 10x your entry.
You can do a Flex Play or a Power Play. A Flex Play provides lesser odds, but you can win money even if you don’t nail every pick. A Power Play is all-or-nothing.
Here’s how I would approach a PrizePicks stack that focuses on Diamondbacks vs. Phillies Game 7.
What is PrizePicks? A daily fantasy operator — meaning they’re available in more states (30) than sports betting is! — PrizePicks offers a unique opportunity for action on player picks in which you combine two or more entries together.
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Bryce Harper Fantasy Score More Than 7
Right-handed rookie Brandon Pfaadt was brilliant in Game 3 of this series, tossing nearly six shutout innings while allowing just two hits and striking out nine.
However, I'm still not sold that this impressive postseason run from Pfaadt is sustainable. This was a guy who finished the regular season ranked in the bottom third among pitchers in xERA, xBA, average exit velocity, Barrel% and Hard-Hit%.
If regression hits for Pfaadt, look for it to come from the bat of Bryce Harper. Seemingly always stepping up when it matters most, Harper is a clutch hitter who is going to need to perform in this Game 7.
The good news is that he enters this contest in good form, recording at least seven fantasy points in three of his past five games. Not only is Harper a threat with the deep ball, but he has also swiped two bags over that span.
Situationally, this is a great spot for Harper as his splits jump by approximately 51% this year when playing at Citizens Bank Park and 3% when facing right-handed pitching.
Christian Walker Fantasy Score Less Than 6
Like Pfaadt, I am not sold that left-hander Ranger Suarez's dominant postseason run is sustainable. However, I have even less faith in some of these D'backs hitters, including Christian Walker.
Walker has recorded six or fewer fantasy points in four of the past five games, averaging just 5.4 over that stretch with a mere .125 BA, .188 SLG and .521 OPS. It also doesn't help his cause that his hitting away from Chase Field as his splits drop by roughly 10% when doing so this year.
We had this same Pfaadt-vs-Suarez matchup in Game 3, and Walker went 0-for-2 with a walk.
Corbin Carroll Fantasy Score Less Than 5.5
If it ain't broke, don't fix it. And that is exactly the approach we've taken throughout the NLCS with fading Corbin Carroll on PrizePicks. The likely NL Rookie of the Year has struggled mightily this series, failing to surpass this figure in all six games.
Over that span, Carroll possesses a fade-worthy .130 BA, .130 SLG and .330 OPS and is averaging just 2.5 fantasy points per game. We should expect this drought to continue against Suarez, a pitcher whom Carroll is just 1-for-7 in his career against with two strikeouts.
Game 7 also presents a terrible spot for Carroll as his splits drop by approximately 28% this year when facing left-handed pitching and 8% when batting on the road.
