Game 6 of the NLCS gets underway this evening as the Philadelphia Phillies take on the Arizona Diamondbacks at Citizens Bank Park.
Let's dive into my top MLB PrizePicks plays for Diamondbacks-Phillies tonight.
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Here’s how I would approach a PrizePicks stack that focuses on Diamondbacks vs. Phillies Game 6.
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Kyle Schwarber Fantasy Score More Than 7
Right-hander Merrill Kelly got roughed up a bit by this Phillies lineup in Game 2, surrendering four runs in under six innings of work en route to Arizona's 10-0 loss.
Two of those runs came off a pair of solo home runs from Kyle Schwarber. A true boom-or-bust hitter, Schwarber is either surpassing his fantasy score with one swing or not at all.
This trend applies to his history against Kelly as well, going 3-for-10 with those two aforementioned homers. Kelly isn't a bad pitcher, but he struggles with the long-ball as he ranks in the 30th percentile in Hard-Hit%.
That could be a problem once again against Schwarber, who has been on a tear this series. He has cleared this number in four of his past five games, averaging 18.8 fantasy points over that stretch.
Schwarber is 7-for-15 at the plate with five homers across those five outings.
Trea Turner Fantasy Score More Than 8.5
We are also going to back the guy who hits directly behind Schwarber in the batting order: Trea Turner.
Like Schwarber, Turner had success in Game 2 against Kelly as he homered in the first inning. Through 27 career plate appearances against the right-hander, he now boasts a .455 BA, .727 SLG and .538 wOBA.
Also like Schwarber, Turner enters this contest in good form, surpassing this figure three of his past five games. Over that span, he owns a .294 BA, .529 SLG and .910 OPS.
Situationally, Monday is a great spot for Turner as his splits jump by approximately 12% this year when facing right-handed pitching and 29% when place at Citizens Bank Park.
Corbin Carroll Fantasy Score Less Than 6.5
We're going to fade an Arizona hitter against right-hander Aaron Nola.
Nola pitched opposite of Kelly in Game 2, tossing six scoreless frames while allowing just three hits. This postseason, Nola is now 3-0 with a 0.96 ERA and 0.75 WHIP.
This domination is likely to continue on Monday, at least against Corbin Carroll. The likely NL Rookie of the Year has struggled mightily this series, failing to surpass this figure in all fives games.
Over that span, Carroll possesses a fade-worthy .105 BA, .105 SLG and .296 OPS and is averaging just two fantasy points per game. Nola will be a tough matchup for Carroll to turn things around considering that he is just 1-for-9 against the right-hander with a single.
Finally, Carroll's splits drop by roughly 8% this season when hitting away from from Chase Field.
