Arizona hands the ball to left-hander Jordan Montgomery while right-hander Taijuan Walker takes the mound for Philadelphia on Friday at Citizens Bank Park.
Let's dive into my Diamondbacks vs Phillies same game parlay for Friday, June 21, which features three legs that include a total and player props for Montgomery and Walker.
Read below for my Diamondbacks vs Phillies Friday Same Game Parlay.
Diamondbacks vs Phillies Friday Same Game Parlay
- Jordan Montgomery Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-110)
- Taijuan Walker Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-170)
- Over 9.5 (-105)
Parlay Odds: +400 (bet365)
Remember to bet responsibly — this is a long shot for a reason.
Montgomery has struggled mightily this season, posting a 6.00 ERA and 1.63 WHIP through 11 starts. His underlying metrics suggest that positive regression is unlikely, given that he ranks in the 14th percentile in xERA and fifth percentile in xBA.
Specifically, we are going to fade Montgomery in the prop market as he ranks in the eighth percentile in strikeout rate. You can currently find his strikeout line at 4.5, a total the southpaw has failed to surpass in five of his past six starts.
These woes are likely to continue against Philadelphia. Although Montgomery has only faced the Phillies once in his career, he surrendered five runs on six hits in just four innings of work.
He also recorded just two strikeouts in that outing. Furthermore, Philadelphia ranks in the top half of the league this season in strikeout rate.
Meanwhile, Walker hasn't been much better. He possesses a 5.33 ERA and 1.45 WHIP through nine starts, and his analytics are even worse.
The right-hander enters this matchup ranking in the 11th percentile or lower in xERA, xBA, average exit velocity, barrel rate and hard-hit rate. Also like Montgomery, Walker struggles in the strikeout department as he ranks in the 16th percentile in chase rate, fifth percentile in whiff rate and 29th percentile in strikeout rate.
These woes are likely to continue against Arizona, a team that possesses a mere 20% strikeout rate and 19.4 whiff rate through 55 combined career plate appearances against Walker. Finally, the DBacks rank seventh in the league in strikeout rate this year.
If we're fading both starting pitchers, then a highly correlated outcome would be a high-scoring affair. Not only are both hurlers well below average, but this game also features two of the best lineups in baseball.
Both teams rank in the top 10 of the league in runs scored per game, hits per game, BA, OBP, SLG and OPS.
Therefore, it shouldn't be surprising that there have been 11 or more total runs scored in each of Montgomery's past four starts and in five of Walker's past seven.
While Philadelphia possesses one of the better bullpens in baseball, that is offset by the fact that Arizona possesses one of the worst. The D-Backs' relief pitching ranks in the bottom nine of the league in ERA, FIP and xFIP.
The weather should also give us a slight boost as the forecast calls for a clear, humid night with winds blowing out to center field.
