Diamondbacks vs. Rangers Odds World Series Game 1
| Diamondbacks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -152 | 8 -114o / -106u | +142 |
| Rangers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +126 | 8 -114o / -106u | -168 |
The odds for World Series Game 1 between the Diamondbacks and Rangers see the home Rangers as -168 favorites on the moneyline. The road Diamondbacks are +142 underdogs on the moneyline.
The total for Diamondbacks-Rangers Game 1 has been set at 8, juiced to -114 toward the over and -106 toward the under.
On the spread, a run line bet of +1.5 on the Diamondbacks has -152 odds, while Rangers -1.5 spead is +126.
Here are our Rangers vs Diamondbacks best bets and predictions for World Series Game 1.
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Nathan Eovaldi Over 15.5 Outs Recorded
-120 at BetMGM
Nathan Eovadli came back from a forearm injury in early September and really struggled down the stretch of the regular season, giving up 21 earned runs in his final six starts. However, he has completely turned it on in the playoffs. In his four starts, he's given up seven runs in 26 innings, has 28 strikeouts and only four walks.
Most importantly, in all four of his starts he has pitched at least six innings, and there is a reason for that beyond him just pitching well.
What we have seen a lot in this postseason is starting pitchers getting yanked after facing the order twice, as managers don't want to leave starters in to face the order the third time through because most pitchers' advantages tend to vanish when they face a hitter for the third time.
This famously happened with Brandon Pfaadt in Game 3 of the NLCS when he was pitching lights out but was pulled after just 5 2/3 innings, and it paid off.
That strategy only works if you have solid middle relief to bridge the gap to get to the back end of your 'pen. The Rangers don't have that bridge. They have relied on Josh Sborz, Aroldis Chapman and Jose Leclerc the entire playoffs, but any time their middle relief has to pitch, they've gotten lit up.
With this being Game 1 of the World Series, I know Bruce Bochy doesn't want to tire out his bullpen or put his middle relief out there, so Eovaldi is going to get a long leash even if he gives up a few runs.
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Under 8.5
-120 at BetRivers
By D.J. James
Nathan Eovaldi held a 3.63 ERA against a 4.01 xERA over the course of the season, but this included a couple of rough starts after he seemed to come back too early from injury.
He has been particularly strong keeping the ball on the ground at 51.5%, Even if he has allowed some hard contact, this is crucial, knowing how many runs come off of homers in the postseason.
In the playoffs, he has been stellar with a 2.42 ERA over 26 innings and should be in great shape for another gem.
Zac Gallen held a 3.47 ERA against a 4.18 xERA in the regular season and allowed some hard contact, too. However, he only has a 5.6% walk rate against a 26% strikeout rate, so he can wriggle out of a jam.
The postseason has brought him a 5.24 ERA over 22 1/3 innings, but we've seen that he can be better. In addition, the D'backs have four relievers below a 4.00 xFIP in the playoffs with sub-8% walk rates. This is about as strong of a relief corps as a team could expect at this stage.
The Rangers have a playoff wRC+ of 124, but the D'backs come into this game at a collective 99.
This should be more a pitchers' duel. I would take the under to 7.5 and -120.
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Under 50.5 Total Runs in Series
-110 at DraftKings
By Kenny Ducey
I expect the Texas Rangers to take care of business in this series, but more than that I expect the pitchers on both sides of this World Series matchup to shine.
Texas benefited greatly from getting to hit off of struggling arms like Jose Urquidy and Framber Valdez in the ALCS, and even Justin Verlander entered the postseason coming off of an uncharacteristically bad season and wilted in Game 5 of that series.
On top of that, the Astros’ bullpen labored through the Division Series and didn’t improve very much in the Championship Series, struggling to keep the ball in the yard and walking 12 in 34 2/3 innings.
The Diamondbacks’ stable, despite pitching poorly in the regular season, has been very effective in the postseason with a 2.94 ERA. While you may think that’s an anomaly, we have seem this story before; the Phillies were the top bullpen last October despite entering the postseason with an ERA near five runs.
Sometimes, with an onus on your higher-leverage arms and some starters who turn into effective relievers, you see a much better showing in October.
So, I believe in the Diamondbacks here to keep Texas at bay, especially when you consider that the middle three games of this series will be played at pitcher-friendly Chase Field.
I think Texas should be capable of wrapping this up inside of six games, though we can’t expect the showing we saw in the ALCS when every game was played at a hitter-friendly park. Texas thrives off of the long ball and loves to hit it in the air, but won’t convert as many fly balls into extra-base hits.
On the other side of the coin, the Diamondbacks’ offense isn’t one I trust against a staff full of ground ball-oriented pitchers, and the trio of Nathan Eovaldi, Jordan Montgomery and Max Scherzer should prove more adept at that particular skill than Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola and Ranger Suarez.
I think Arizona comes crashing back down to earth, and on the other side of the coin we won’t see quite as many home runs if the majority of these games are played in Arizona, or at least an equal amount.
That’s why I see plenty of value in the under on the total number of runs scored here. Between the starters I listed above, plus Zac Gallen and Brandon Pfaadt, I think we will see a number of excellent pitching performances.
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