The World Series kicks off on Friday evening as the Texas Rangers host the Arizona Diamondbacks in Game 1.
Despite the lone game, there are still plenty of entries to sift through on PrizePicks.
A quick refresher if you aren’t familiar with PrizePicks: You can combine up to five different player squares to pay out up to 10x your entry.
You can do a Flex Play or a Power Play. A Flex Play provides lesser odds, but you can win money even if you don’t nail every pick. A Power Play is all-or-nothing.
Here’s how I would approach a PrizePicks stack that focuses on Diamondbacks vs. Rangers Game 1.
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Marcus Semien Fantasy Score More Than 7
Right-hander Zac Gallen takes the mound for Arizona in Game 1 and could be a good fade candidate.
It's been a tough postseason for Gallen, who is 2-2 with a 5.24 ERA and a 1.48 WHIP. This lack of success was predictable due to his poor underlying metrics entering the playoffs. Gallen ranked in the bottom half of the league in xERA, xBA, average exit velocity, Barrel% and Hard-Hit%.
That brings us Marcus Semien, who ended the ALCS in good form as he recorded seven or more fantasy points in both Game 6 and Game 7. The postseason as a whole hasn't gone well for Semien, but the ending of the ALCS should help him turn things around.
In the regular season, Semien boasted a .278 BA, a .480 SLG and a .830 OPS. Additionally, Semien owns a .625 BA, a .875 SLG and a .648 wOBA through nine career plate appearances against Gallen.
Situationally, this spot presents a good opportunity to back Semien as his splits jump by approximately 4% this season when facing right-handed pitching and by 18% when playing at Globe Life Field.
Gabriel Moreno Fantasy Score Less Than 6
We're also going to fade a couple of Diamondbacks hitters against right-hander Nathan Eovaldi.
Eovaldi's postseason has gone very differently than Gallen's. Eovaldi has posted a 4-0 record with a 2.42 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP through four starts. His analytics are also better than Gallen's.
The first Arizona hitter to fade is Gabriel Moreno, who has failed to surpass this figure in three of his past five games. He's also never faced Eovaldi, so it may take him a few plate appearances to try and figure him out.
Additionally, when batting away from Chase Field this year, Moreno's splits drop by roughly 14%.
Corbin Carroll Fantasy Score Less Than 7
There may be some recency bias baked into this number as Corbin Carroll's PrizePicks square during the NLCS was almost always between five and six points.
Yes, he flew past this number in Game 7, but he failed to surpass it in each of the first six games. In the NLCS, Carroll posted a fade-worthy .222 BA, a .222 SLG and a .489 OPS.
Like Moreno, Carroll has never faced Eovaldi, so there will also be an adjustment period for him. Additionally, Carroll's splits drop by approximately 8% on the road this season.
