Diamondbacks vs. Tigers Odds
| Diamondbacks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
| -130 | 9 +100 / -120 | -1.5 +130 |
| Tigers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+110 | 9 +100 / -120 | +1.5 -150 |
The Arizona Diamondbacks have been one of the hottest teams in baseball, winning eight of their last 10 games. They sit atop the National League West ahead of the Los Angeles Dodgers. On Saturday they will face the Detroit Tigers, who are just 2-8 in their last 10 games as of Friday afternoon.
Ryne Nelson will pitch Saturday for Arizona, while the Tigers will counter with Matthew Boyd. Nelson has been subpar this season, but the Tigers have been abysmal hitting the ball, especially off of righties. They only scored one earned run off of the Phillies in their last series.
Since Nelson’s weak pitching should be negated by how poorly the Tigers hit the ball, and the Diamondbacks can hit lefties, Arizona should win this game.
Arizona Diamondbacks
Nelson is one of the weaker members of the Diamondbacks’ pitching staff. He ranks in the 10th percentile in Average Exit Velocity and the 36th percentile in Hard-Hit Rate. He has a 5.40 ERA, but that should improve slightly against his 5.06 xERA. That said, he did improve in May with a 4.15 ERA over the course of 26 innings. He should continue this trend versus one of the weakest hitting teams in the league.
Arizona can hit the ball off of lefties. The Diamondbacks rank in the middle of the pack with a 107 wRC+ and .771 OPS in the last month. They have six hitters with a .350+ xwOBA on the season, and Corbin Carroll and Gabriel Moreno are above .325, so this encompasses most of the lineup. They should string together runs off of Boyd and the Tigers bullpen.
In relief, Arizona has improved, too. They have a collective 3.57 xFIP in June and a 3.74 xFIP in the last month. They have four arms under a 3.00 xFIP and three more under a 4.00 xFIP since May 10. There is enough in the bullpen even if Nelson struggles a bit.
Detroit Tigers
Boyd is one of the saving graces in the last few weeks for the Tigers. His 5.57 ERA does not tell the whole story because he has a 4.02 xERA and ranks in the 77th percentile in Hard Hit Rate. He also has solid Whiff and Chase Rate rankings. He does have control problems at times and held a 6.46 ERA in May. He is pretty up-and-down, so it's tough to back him and the Tigers' ailing lineup.
The Tigers are horrific at hitting against righties. They have a 72 wRC+ in the last month paired with a .600 OPS. In June, that has somehow gotten worse. They have a 33.3% Strikeout Rate, .396 OPS and a 13 wRC+. Regardless of if Nelson is a strong pitcher or not, this will not get the job done against most MLB pitching.
On the season, the lineup has been pretty top-heavy. The injuries to Kerry Carpenter, Matt Vierling and Riley Greene have hindered any semblance of a light at the end of the tunnel. Arizona has a major edge with the bats here.
In relief, Detroit has a 4.16 xFIP, so the bullpen has not been terrible, but it is worse than Arizona, though. The Tigers have seven arms under a 4.00 xFIP in the last month, so this does help but will not necessarily push them over the edge.
Diamondbacks vs. Tigers Betting Pick
The Tigers cannot hit. That is the story in this game.
Nelson is at least improving, while Boyd is inconsistent, even with encouraging peripherals.
Since the Diamondbacks can hit lefties, and they have the better bullpen, bet Arizona on the moneyline from -126 to -150 . The D-backs have a considerable edge with the bats, and until the Tigers prove otherwise, they are fade material now on a short moneyline.
Pick: D-backs ML (-126 | Play to -150) |
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