Diamondbacks vs. Yankees Odds
| Diamondbacks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-110 | 8 -110 / -110 | -1.5 +108 |
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-110 | 8 -110 / -110 | +1.5 -127 |
Carlos Rodón gets the nod for the New York Yankees with the hopes to continue a string of a couple solid starts. Arizona will likely be throwing Zach Davies, but since the Yankees have had trouble every time a right-hander takes the mound for the opponent, it is hard to back their side.
The D-Backs and the Yankees have had a particularly tough time hitting the ball, in general, but the D-Backs have been about league average.
Now, the Yankees have a solid bullpen, but Arizona hits lefties better than righties, and Rodón has had a few hiccups upon returning from injury in July.
With that being the case, the D-Backs team total is a bit low, so they should hit their over.
Arizona Diamondbacks
Davies has been awful this season, yet again. He has a 6.81 ERA against a 5.28 xERA, so there seems to be a little positive regression headed his way. He carries an 8% Barrel Rate, 89.7 MPH Average Exit Velocity and a Hard Hit Rate of 42.8%. His strikeout rate is below 20%, and his walk rate is above 10%, so as anyone can see, it is unbelievably hard to back him as a starter. If someone else gets the nod, there is a bit more value, if looking to back the D-Backs.
Arizona has not had the best month at the dish. They have a 106 wRC+ off of lefties in September with a .764 OPS, an 7.8% walk rate, and a 16% strikeout rate. They have six batters above a .300 xwOBA this month in limited plate appearances. This is not necessarily a stacked lineup, but seeing as they do not strike out much, they eliminate a major facet in Rodón’s game-plan.
In relief, the D-Backs have been about average with a 4.33 xFIP, 7.6% walk rate, and 20.6% strikeout rate. They are stranding runners at an 84.5% clip, so this will come back to earth a bit eventually. They do only have two arms below a 4.00 xFIP, so this is concerning and another reason not to back the moneyline.
New York Yankees
Rodón has been up and down when he has pitched this year. In 12 starts, he has had five outings where he has given up four or more runs, which is not the lockdown starter he was in 2021 and 2022. Part of the reason is he is giving up hard contact. His Barrel Rate is 12.2%, his Average Exit Velocity is 91.8 MPH, and his Hard Hit Rate is 40.2%. He is only striking out 23.6% of batters, nearly a 10% drop from last season, while he is walking 9.8% (a 2.5% increase). His groundball rate is only 26.8%. Hard contact with the ball in the air is a recipe for disaster, no matter the opponent.
The Yankees are faltering. The season is over for them, and they just lost Jasson Domínguez to the Injured List. They have an 82 wRC+ and .649 OPS off of righties this month. Their walk rate is 11.2%, and their strikeout rate is 26.5%. They have only five bats above a .320 xwOBA, but unless the top of the order gets to whomever pitches against them, the bottom half is not doing much at the dish.
They have a decent bullpen, but that has even taken a step back this month. They carry a 4.42 xFIP and only three arms below the 4.00 mark. The D-Backs should get to the bullpen early because they can force Weaver out of the game.
Diamondbacks vs. Yankees
Betting Pick & Prediction
Neither of these starting pitchers are strong, so backing the better team’s offense with solid production is the right call. Arizona has an above average lineup, especially at the top of the batting order. Since that is the case, fading Luke Weaver in this matchup makes sense. Take the Snakes to 4.5 (-125), as they can get to the Yankee bullpen quickly.
