Dodgers vs. Braves Odds
| Dodgers Odds | -160 |
| Braves Odds | +135 |
| Over/Under | 8 |
| Time | 8:08 p.m. ET |
| TV | TBS |
| Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here. | |
Will the World Series be set tonight?
The Atlanta Braves sure hope so, as they'll make their second attempt to close out the defending champion Dodgers, this time at home. Los Angeles is looking to come back from a 3-1 deficit against Atlanta for the second-straight year, and will have ace Walker Buehler on the mound on short rest after Max Scherzer was scratched because of fatigue.
Two of our analysts have betting recommendations on this game and they're both looking the same way: the underdogs to close things out.
Here are our best bets for Saturday's NLCS Game 6 in Atlanta.
Braves +135
Tanner McGrath: There’s no questioning how good Walker Buehler is. He’s one of the best starting pitchers in MLB, turning into L.A.’s de-facto ace this season.
However, if the Dodgers are to win this game, it won’t be because of him.
So far this postseason, Buehler’s posted a 3.77 ERA and a 4.57 FIP. He managed just 4 1/3 innings in Game 4 against the Giants and 3 2/3 innings in Game 3 of this NLCS. His 1.46 WHIP is concerning, especially because he’s posting a relatively stable BABIP (.310).
Following a bullpen day Friday where the Dodgers used seven different pitchers, the Dodgers need Buehler to deal today. However, I’m hesitant he does.
But the market is still pricing Buehler as the Cy Young candidate he is. Consensus lines put the Dodgers in the -160 range, and that’s overvaluing Buehler and Co.
If Buehler manages 4 2/3 or 5 innings today, the Braves will have an advantage in the late innings, as Atlanta didn't use Luke Jackson, Tyler Matzek or Will Smith on Friday.
I believe the Braves are slightly undervalued on the ML, especially when you can still bet them at +135 on BetMGM. Our Action PRO projections make Atlanta’s ML closer to +120.
Atlanta is the value play in Game 6, and let’s hope they send the Dodgers packing tonight.
Braves +135
Sean Zerillo: Game 6 of the NLCS was supposed to be a rematch from Game 2, with Ian Anderson (4.30 xERA, 3.96 xFIP, 4.38 SIERA) facing Max Scherzer.
However, Scherzer joined the Dodgers’ rapidly growing injured list, including Justin Turner and Joe Kelly from within the past few days.
David Price (4.03 xERA, 4.49 xFIP, 4.52 SIERA) will replace Kelly on the roster. The southpaw pitched 73 2/3 innings over 39 appearances this season (11 starts) while posting his worst strikeout minus walk rate since 2009 (9.8%, a 12% decrease relative to his 2019 season.)
The Braves roughed up Walker Buehler in Game 3 (3 2/3 IP, 6 H, 4 R, 3 BB, 3 K), but L.A. will go back to him on short rest on Saturday.
Offensively, the Braves performed much better against righties (100 wRC+, 11th) than lefties (93 wRC+, 25th), a split which held up after the trade deadline with their retooled outfield (13th and 19th, respectively). And I project their base lineup as a quarter of a run worse per game against southpaws.
As a result, I would expect to see lefties Justin Bruihl (2 IP, 1 H, 5 K) and Alex Vesia (3 IP, 3 H, 5 K) – who have excelled in this series – get into Game 6.
Price offers the two-pitch types (cutter, changeup), which have slowed this Atlanta offense (15th and 19th on a per-pitch basis) since the trade deadline.
Bruihl also throws a heavy dose of cutters (58%), while Vesia has a sneaky-good changeup (10% usage) to pair with his fastball-heavy approach (72%).
Anderson was lifted after three shaky innings for Atlanta in Game 2 (3 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 3 BB, 2 K). The former No. 3 overall pick relies on his changeup against both lefties (36.6%) and righties (26.6%).
He carries reverse splits (.262 wOBA vs. lefties, .298 vs. righties) as a result, and through his curveball (21.1% usage) is a solid offering, it pales in comparison to the changeup (50-grade vs. 70-grade).
However, the Dodgers have struggled against curveballs relative to other pitch types, and Anderson only threw 9 (16%) in Game 2 – generating one called strike and zero whiffs.
The Dodgers’ lineup and bullpen have undoubtedly taken a hit with their recent cluster of injuries. Still, I project their position player group as the better team by about a half run per game (offensively and defensively), and I give them the better bullpen by 0.15 runs per game.
That’s enough to make the Dodgers slight road favorites in Game 6, even without Max Scherzer.
With Buehler starting, I would need -114 (53.3% implied) or better to bet the Dodgers ML at a 2% edge. Conversely, I would need +134 or better to bet the Atlanta ML at a similar advantage.
And I would set the price targets for the First Five Innings (F5) at -129 and +152, respectively.
