The Braves have another shot to make the Fall Classic Saturday night. But standing in their way will be Walker Buehler and a Dodgers team that came back from a 3-1 deficit in this very same spot last season.
However, I see some vulnerability in Buehler's game, and I've targeted one Atlanta bat that can take advantage of him today.
Read on for our best player prop bet for Game 6 of the NLCS.
MLB Player Props & Picks
Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 Total Bases (+125)
| Braves vs. Dodgers | Braves (+130) |
| Time | 8:08 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | DraftKings |
Through the Braves' first six postseason games, Freddie Freeman was a total zero. He went 4-for-21, although he managed two extra-base hits.
Well, Freeman's finally gotten hot.
.@FreddieFreeman5 is not messing around. 💪 pic.twitter.com/bNSAFz0Ht0
— MLB (@MLB) October 22, 2021
Over his past three games, Freeman's collected 13 bases. He's 6-for-12 over that stretch with a double and two home runs.
I like Freeman to continue rolling today, especially at the +125 price.
I believe Walker Buehler is a little overrated in this game. He's posted some lackluster numbers through his three postseason starts, including a 1.46 WHIP.
But because of his status as an elite starting pitcher, all the Braves batters will get an odds boost in the market. I like targeting Freeman today, as he's running hot and is 5-for-17 lifetime against Buehler with a .788 xSLG.
Buehler throws a four-seam fastball about 43% of the time, and it's one of the most effective fastballs in the league. Despite the fact he averages about 95 mph with the pitch, he's held opposing average exit velocities under 90 mph this season.
But if anyone is going to smack that pitch around, it's Freeman. On the season, Freeman is slugging .600 against the four-seam with a 93 mph average exit velocity. He also crushed the pitch during the last month of the season:
While Buehler has managed to minimize hard-hit balls on the pitch, Freeman has been one of the exceptions. In those aforementioned 17 ABs, Freeman has posted a 95.3 mph average exit velocity.
I'm looking for Freeman to square up one of Buehler's fastballs today. However, Buehler has pitched just 7 2/3 combined innings over his last few appearances, meaning Freeman should also have plenty of chances against a stretched-out Dodgers bullpen that he's already taken advantage of this season.
