Dodgers vs Brewers Saturday Odds & Moneyline Prediction (7/6)
(Photo by Patrick McDermott/Getty Images) Pictured: Freddy Peralta
Dodgers vs Brewers Saturday Odds & Moneyline Prediction (7/6)
| Los Angeles Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
-112 | 8.5 -122o / +102u | +1.5 -185 |
| Milwaukee Brewers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
-108 | 8.5 -122o / +102u | -1.5 +154 |
Let's dive into Saturday's MLB odds and get into our Dodgers vs Brewers prediction in our Saturday MLB betting preview for July 6.
Dodgers vs Brewers odds have the Dodgers as -112 moneyline favorites with an over/under of 8.5 (-122o / +102u) for the Saturday matchup at Dodger Stadium. For my Dodgers vs Brewers prediction, I'll be betting the moneyline.
Right-hander Freddy Peralta takes the mound for Milwaukee, while Los Angeles hands the ball to left-hander James Paxton.
Los Angeles Dodgers
It's been an up-and-down season for Paxton, who possesses a 4.28 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP through 15 starts. His underlying metrics are even worse as the southpaw sports a 4.81 xERA and ranks in the 30th percentile or lower in xBA, average exit velocity and hard-hit rate.
Following Paxton is a bullpen that's primed for regression. Despite ranking fourth in ERA, Los Angeles' relief staff ranks 21st in both FIP and xFIP.
This pitching staff is unlikely to receive much run support with the Dodgers slated to go against Peralta. Los Angeles' current lineup possesses a mere .148 BA, .279 SLG and a .251 wOBA through 71 combined career plate appearances against Milwaukee's right-hander.
Milwaukee Brewers
Meanwhile, Peralta is looking to continue his strong campaign. He is 6-4 through 17 starts with a 3.83 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP.
Peralta enters this game in particularly good form as he's surrendered two or fewer runs in each of his past three starts. The right-hander is 2-0 over that stretch with a commanding 1.50 ERA and a 0.83 WHIP.
Additionally, Milwaukee won all three of those outings.
Peralta's analytics suggest this swing of positive regression is likely to continue. Peralta owns a 3.48 xERA and ranks in the 80th percentile in xBA and in the 91st percentile in average exit velocity.
Following the Brewers' starter is one of the league's best bullpens. Milwaukee's relief staff outranks Los Angeles' in ERA, FIP and xFIP.
Run support also shouldn't be an issue for this pitching staff. The Brewers rank in the top 10 of the league in runs scored per game, hits per game, BA, OBP, OPS and stolen bases.
Dodgers vs. Brewers
Betting Pick & Prediction
I'm not sure what the justification is for Los Angeles laying -118 on the moneyline in this matchup. The starting pitching edge clearly goes to Milwaukee.
Peralta outranks Paxton in ERA, WHIP, xERA, xBA, average exit velocity and hard-hit rate. The Brewers' bullpen also outranks the Dodgers' in ERA, FIP and xFIP.
That just leaves the hitting, which is a wash. Both teams possess nearly equal offensive stats across the board and the runs scored per game differential is just 0.2.
The pitching gap is far wider than the hitting gap, so I will gladly take a shot on the road 'dogs. Speaking of which, the price is particularly strong at FanDuel.
Pick: Brewers Moneyline | Play to -105 |
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