Dodgers vs Cardinals Odds
| Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
| +106 | 9 -117 / -103 | +1.5 -205 |
| Cardinals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
| -122 | 9 -117 / -103 | -1.5 +163 |
With an ERA of 4.91 through 47.2 innings, Miles Mikolas is on pace to post career-worst marks. He will start Saturday for the Cardinals, who have trended into better form with nine wins in their last 12 games.
The Dodgers, meanwhile, will turn to Noah Syndergaard, who has pitched to a 5.95 ERA in 36.1 innings.
Considering the difference in results this season between these teams, many bettors will likely be intrigued by the Dodgers priced at -110. Is there a case for the Cardinals on Saturday though?
Los Angeles Dodgers
Syndergaard has pitched to a disappointing 5.95 ERA to start the year. However, his xERA is nearly a full run lower at 4.72, while his xFIP sits at an encouraging 4.41.
His chase rate is up considerably and has been a part of steady splits against right-handed batters.
Left-handed batters have crushed Syndergaard so far, though, as they're slugging a combined .551. Since the start of last season, he has struck out just 12% of left-handed batters, which is the fourth-lowest mark among pitchers with 80 innings of work.
While some of the names have changed, Los Angeles has continued with its strong offensive start to the campaign. It owns a 114 wRC+ versus right-handed pitching and has put up a wRC+ mark of 120 in the month of May.
St. Louis Cardinals
Offensive play has not been the problem for the Cardinals, who enter this matchup with the fourth-best wRC+ (114) and fourth-best xwOBA (.342) this season.
Plus, their 13th-ranked BABIP of .301 suggests it's not all good luck. They've hit to a 113 wRC+ in splits versus right-handed pitching, in particular.
As you would expect, their offensive play has remained hot in May. They boast a wRC+ of 122 and a wOBA of .348.
Nolan Gorman enters this matchup as hot as anyone in the midst of a 10-game hitting streak that includes 14 hits and four homers. He has slugged .637 against righties with an OPS of 1.024, so he'll be in some favorable splits against Syndergaard.
Mikolas has bounced back with two straight dominant outings. His xERA still sits at 5.75, but his xFIP of 4.35 is encouraging. Mikolas' .490 xSLG rate is alarming, and he's been hit hard 42.8% of the time, which is the worst mark of his career by a mile.
Mikolas' velocity and spin rates are ranking close to what we saw in 2022. Last year, he seemed to be a pitcher who was likely overvalued and overachieved. This year, it seems to be the opposite. A projected ERA around 4.00 the rest of the way makes sense.
Dodgers vs Cardinals Betting Pick
Gorman is crushing the ball right now and will be in his better splits against Syndergaard on Saturday. He should bat five times in what could be a notably high-scoring game, and I think he has a solid chance to rack up another extra-base hit. Maybe he's due for a quieter day, but +135 for two bases is hard to pass up in this spot.
The Cardinals have been one of the best teams in baseball at the plate and are definitely right there with the Dodgers on that front. Mikolas' underlying results are concerning, but I believe the quality of his stuff and his history says he could actually offer an edge over Syndergaard here.
Mikolas and his team have struggled up to this point in the season, which is baked into the number here. I actually think that two months from now, the Cards might be -125 in this spot.
Pick: Nolan Gorman Over 1.5 Total Bases (+135) · Cardinals ML (-108) |
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