Los Angeles Dodgers vs Chicago Cubs Odds
| Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +110 | 8 -104o / -118u | -148 |
| Cubs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -132 | 8 -104o / -118u | +126 |
A pitching duel could be in store between the Dodgers and Cubs when L.A.'s Yoshinobu Yamamoto takes on Chicago's Jordan Wicks.
Let's dive into why I'm eyeing the under as I look at the Dodgers vs Cubs odds and make a pick.
Los Angeles Dodgers
Yamamoto got lit up in South Korea in his shaky debut. However, the right-hander put that performance immediately behind him as he rebounded in dominant fashion against the St. Louis Cardinals.
In that outing, Yamamoto tossed five scoreless innings while allowing just two hits and striking out five. His underlying metrics suggest his performances going forward are more likely to go similarly to his second start rather than his first.
Yamamoto ranks in the 62nd percentile or higher in xERA, xBA, Whiff%, K% and BB%. Additionally, not a single hitter on Chicago has ever faced the rookie right-hander before, so it may take a few rotations through the batting order to attempt to figure him out.
Following Yamamoto is a bullpen that is capable of finishing the task, given that Los Angeles' relief pitching ranks in the top half of the league in FIP.
Chicago Cubs
Meanwhile, left-hander Jordan Wicks will get the ball for Chicago. Wicks did not have his sharpest stuff in his season debut against the Texas Rangers, but I think he is heading towards positive regression in a similar manner as Yamamoto.
While the former first-round pick did not post the best numbers in his debut season last year, those stats were weighed down by one terrible start against Milwaukee. Outside of that one performance, Wicks has now allowed two or fewer earned runs in five of his eight career starts.
Like Yamamoto, Wicks' underlying metrics suggest there is a lot to like about the left-hander moving forward. Although he did not officially qualify last season, Wicks would have ranked in the 60th percentile or higher in average exit velocity, Barrel% and Hard-Hit%.
Another similarity with Yamamoto is that not a single batter on the Dodgers' roster has faced Wicks prior to Saturday, so it similarly may take a few rotations through the batting order to figure him out.
Dodgers vs. Cubs
Betting Pick & Prediction
Both of these teams have gotten off to strong starts this season, and the hitting has certainly played a role in those starts for both teams. There is no denying both lineups have performed tremendously, but Saturday presents a good sell-high spot in what could be a great pitching battle between Yamamoto and Wicks.
Yamamoto was the biggest international signing of the offseason, while Wicks was a 2021 first-round draft pick who projects to have a ridiculously high ceiling for the Cubs. These two could be future Cy Young-caliber pitchers, and I think both can handle these strong lineups.
The wind could also help us out here, considering it will be blowing directly inward from center field during the game. Finally, we are catching a particularly good price on the Under at -106 via BetRivers, a number that is four cents longer than the rest of the market at the time of writing.
Pick: Under 8 (-106 · Play to -115)
