On Monday afternoon, the Dodgers and Diamondbacks will conclude their four-game series with a Labor Day matinee game.
The Dodgers have taken two of the first three games, making Monday’s game a pivotal one. With a win, the Dodgers can leave the desert with six-game lead in the NL West.
Jack Flaherty will get the ball for the Dodgers, and he'll be opposed by Eduardo Rodriguez.
Regardless of the pitching matchup, runs may be aplenty if the first three games of the series are any indication.
Read on for my Dodgers vs Diamondbacks same game parlay.
Alex Hinton's Dodgers vs Diamondbacks MLB Parlay Picks (Monday, September 2)
- Corbin Carroll Over 1.5 Total Bases (-110)
- Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 Total Bases (-105)
- Teoscar Hernandez Over 1.5 Total Bases (-105)
- Over 9.5 Runs (+130)
Parlay Odds: +982 (FanDuel)
Remember to bet responsibly — this is a long shot for a reason.
Corbin Carroll Over 1.5 Total Bases (-110)
On Friday night, Corbin Carroll had a difficult matchup (left-on-left) on paper against the great Clayton Kershaw.
However, the odds were mispriced, considering that Carroll was 5-for-8 with two home runs off Kershaw. In his lone at-bat against Kershaw, Carroll hit a home run and cashed a +900 ticket. Carroll homered again on Saturday before having two singles last night.
Carroll now has an 11-game hitting streak, and over his last 15 games, he's hitting .310 with eight home runs, 18 runs batted in and a 1.134 OPS.
Today, Carroll gets Flaherty, and he's 3-for-10 against him. However, what's particularly noteworthy is the hits are a double, triple and home run. Any of the three will work today, though with Carroll triples and home runs have been the more likely options of late.
Caroll has recorded two total bases in all three games in this series, six of his last eight games and seven of his last 10 home games.
I like all three of those trends continuing today.
Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 Total Bases (-105)
Yesterday, the Diamondbacks jumped out to a 9-0 lead en route to a 14-3 win. Dodgers manager Dave Roberts responded by pulling Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman and Teoscar Hernandez in the fourth inning.
As a result, Freeman and Hernandez both ended the game hitless in three combined at-bats, but I don't expect that to remain the case today.
Like Carroll, Freeman homered in Friday's and Saturday's games. He's 4-for-12 (.333) in the series with five runs batted in.
This season, Freeman has been more vulnerable than usual against left-handed pitchers, as he's hitting .237 against them.
However, Eduardo Rodriguez is one left-hander that he sees very well and is 5-for-11 (.455) with a double and two runs batted in.
Teoscar Hernandez Over 1.5 Total Bases (-105)
Meanwhile, Hernandez mashes left-handed pitching.
In just 129 at-bats, Hernandez has seven doubles, 10 home runs and 26 runs batted in while hitting .287 with a .926 OPS against left-handed pitching. He averages one home run every 12.9 at-bats against lefties, compared to every 21.3 at-bats against right-handed pitchers.
He has a good chance of hitting one today off Rodriguez. Hernandez is 8-for-21 (.381) with two doubles, three home runs and seven runs batted in against him.
Hernandez doubled on Friday and Saturday before only having one plate appearance yesterday.
With three or more at-bats against Rodriguez today, I like his chances of having two total bases.
Over 9.5 Runs (+130)
The actual total for this game is 8.5 runs, so feel free to water it down. However, in this series, there's been at least 14 runs scored in all three games, with an average of 16.7 per game.
Additionally, there have been 10 runs scored in nine of the first 12 meetings this season. As a result, I feel comfortable bumping up the total a bit and adding a little more juice to this parlay.
Meanwhile, Rodriguez has allowed three earned runs in three of his first four starts off the IL this season. He also has a career 5.85 ERA in four starts against the Dodgers.
On the other side, Flaherty has enjoyed one of the best seasons of his career. However, he's also allowed three or more earned runs in three of his last four starts. He has a career 4.08 ERA at Chase Field and a 4.41 ERA against the Diamondbacks overall.
Since the All-Star break, the Diamondbacks are averaging 6.5 runs per game while the Dodgers are averaging 5.1 per game.
I lean towards the Dodgers contributing to the total more today, and the Diamondbacks are prolific at home, as this series has already shown.
These offenses should combine for 10 runs today.
