Dodgers vs. Mariners Odds
| Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-110 | 7.5 -120 / -102 | -1.5 +152 |
| Mariners Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-106 | 7.5 -120 / -102 | +1.5 -184 |
Los Angeles and Seattle will kick off a high quality interleague matchup on Friday. The Dodgers own a magic number of four before they can officially celebrate another NL West title, while the Mariners enter with a 1.5-game lead over the Blue Jays for the final wild-card berth.
George Kirby (3.48 ERA, 165 2/3 IP) will make his first start since some mildly controversial comments surrounding his Sept. 4 start in Tampa. He will be opposed by 24-year-old flamethrower Bobby Miller (3.98 ERA, 101 2/3 IP).
Los Angeles Dodgers
Bobby Miller has remained true to form over the last five outings, even if his actual ERA of 4.18 is mildly disappointing. He has pitched to an average single game xFIP of 3.76 and lowered his xwOBA to .295 across those five matchups. He now owns an xERA of 3.62 this season.
Miller's electric stuff suggests his strong underlying results should continue and that he will indeed live up to his first-round draft selection. He owns a 125 Stuff+ rating, with elite marks on his fastball and slider. Location+ rates him better than average with a mark of 102. His arm talent has been on full display over the last three matchups, as opposing batters own a miss-rate of 29%, which is the highest mark from a starter in that span.
Giving up home runs in four straight matchups has hurt Miller's earned run totals, but his underlying profile still makes a tremendous case of his dominant potential.
Los Angeles has hit to a wRC+ of 124 over the last 30 days. It owns a BB/K ratio of 0.47 over that span, and has made soft contact just 14.9% of the time.
Seattle Mariners
It's been a bit of a tough stretch for George Kirby, who missed a couple of important starts due to illness and has not displayed top form in two appearances since. After allowing two runs in the seventh versus Tampa, Kirby caught a little hot water for stating, “I wish I wasn't out there for the seventh to be honest 'cause I was at 90 pitches. I didn't think I needed to go anymore."
He will have a great chance to get right in this crucial spot at home with the Mariners in a close playoff race. Kirby has pitched well at home this season, with a 2.87 ERA and 0.87 WHIP.
His numbers have tailed off a touch over the season's back half, as he owns an ERA of 4.19 since the All-Star break. He has averaged an xFIP of 3.62 over the last five starts, which is consistent with his season long mark.
Kirby owns a Stuff+ of 105, and has used his quality arsenal well with elite command. Walking just 16 of 661 batters (2.1%) gives him the top BB rate among qualified starters this season. He owns a Location+ mark of 109.
Seattle has put together its best offensive run of the season by some margin with a 134 wRC+ over the last 30 days. The Mariners BABIP over that time is second in the league. Their K% of 24.9% is concerning, and their BB/K ratio of 0.34 is fifth-worst.
Dodgers vs. Mariners
Betting Pick & Prediction
The Dodgers lineup deserves to be viewed as a more potent unit than the Mariners, even if Seattle's recent surge against soft pitching staffs hides that fact to an extent. To make this game a pick'em, Kirby needs to offer a decisive edge over Miller, and as outlined my position is that is not the case.
The Dodgers deserve to be a slight favorite in this matchup, and betting them at -110 or better provides value. Targeting the Dodgers at -115 to win the first five is another solid option. However, considering how L.A.'s bullpen has stabilized over the last five to six weeks and their stronger lineup, taking the full game price of -110 is my preferred option and I am willing to take on Seattle's elite bullpen.
