The Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Mets continue their National League Championship Series with Game 4 on Thursday night at Citi Field.
For NLCS Game 4, I've targeted two player props from each team, with one pick for Dodgers Game 4 starter Yoshinobu Yamamoto and another on Mets slugger Pete Alonso. Read below for my Dodgers vs Mets Game 4 player props analysis.
Dodgers vs Mets Game 4 Player Props
- Yoshinobu Yamamoto Over 1.5 Earned Runs -105 (bet365)
- Pete Alonso to Record A Hit -135 (bet365)
Yoshinobu Yamamoto Player Props: Will Mets Jump Yamamoto?
Yamamoto was excellent against the Padres in a do-or-die Game 5 in the NLDS last time out, and that performance is certainly scary when looking at this prop.
Pitching conditions at Citi Field will be favorable to Yamamoto in today's game, which is another argument against this play.
There are some clear positives, however, which work in favor of this bet. Part of the -105 number for Yamamoto to allow over 1.5 earned runs revolves around the idea that oddsmakers are not expecting him to work deep into this game — he has an outs line of just 13.5.
Considering the state of the Dodgers bullpen, 13.5 looks like a low total outs line, and that works in favor of this bet and part of the reason we get -105 for him to allow just two earned runs.
In Yamamoto's two playoff appearances, he has a .278 xBA and 5.43 xFIP. He also has put up a K-BB% of 0.0.
He obviously pitched well in his last outing against San Diego, but he was still hard hit 43% of the time and struck out only two batters.
The Mets have shown plenty of resiliency this postseason, and I don't feel remotely bad backing them to do so again in this critical matchup. They have played to a wRC+ of 100 this postseason with an OPS of .698. Those numbers might sound fairly pedestrian, but the quality of opposing pitchers faced — from the Brewers, Phillies and Dodgers — has been high.
Since returning from the IL, Yamamoto has allowed over 1.5 ER in three of six starts. He should be expected to pitch deeper into this game than in of those matchups though, and will be looking to tame a Mets lineup that has shined in big moments.
Pete Alonso Player Props: Don't Discount the Polar Bear
With just one hit through four games in the NLCS, the noise surrounding Pete Alonso needing to step up is reaching a fever pitch once again. That narrative was momentarily put on pause thanks to his gigantic three-run homer off Devin Williams in the Wild Card Series.
As noted, Yamamoto has allowed an xBA of .278 this postseason. Yamamoto hasn't fared better in same-sided matchups, as he holds a 1.21 WHIP and allowed a .263 average versus right-handed batters this season. Alonso's .241 BA versus righties this season is also better than his mark versus lefties.
In Alonso's last 51 PAs, he holds an xBA of .250 and has a hard-hit rate of 63%. Despite that, he is priced as the 12th-most likely player to get a hit in Game 4, which seems to be taking his struggles a little too far.
At -140 or better, I see value in backing Alonso to record a hit in a matchup that doesn't look as entirely brutal as this number suggests.
