The Los Angeles Dodgers will roll out right-hander Jack Flaherty for Game 5 of this National League Championship Series, while the New York Mets will counter with left-hander David Peterson as hosts at Citi Field. First pitch is scheduled for 5:08 p.m. ET on FS1.
Let's get to my Dodgers vs Mets Game 5 player props and my MLB picks for Friday, October 18.
Dodgers vs Mets Game 5 Player Props
- Jack Flaherty Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-154, FanDuel)
- Starling Marte Under 0.5 Hits (+123, Caesars)
- Tyrone Taylor Under 0.5 Hits (-120, BetMGM)
Jack Flaherty Player Props: Bet on LA's Ace to Perform
Jack Flaherty has served as the true ace in the Dodgers' rotation ever since he joined the team. Through 28 regular season starts, the right-hander posted a 13-7 record with a 3.17 ERA and 1.07 WHIP.
His underlying metrics were equally strong, as Flaherty ranked in the top-half of the league in xERA, xBA, average exit velocity, walk rate and hard-hit rate. This success has continued into the postseason, where Flaherty boasts a 2.92 ERA and 0.81 WHIP across two starts.
The latest of those two starts came in Game 1 of this series, where he tossed seven scoreless innings while only surrendering two hits and racking up six strikeouts. I will be backing Flaherty to reach that strikeout mark once again, considering that he ranks in the 72nd percentile in chase rate, 91st percentile in whiff rate and 90th percentile in strikeout rate.
He's collected six or more strikeouts across two career starts against New York, posting a 2.92 ERA in the process. Looking at it from the other side, this current Mets lineup possesses a 27.8% strikeout rate and 27.4% whiff rate through 97 combined career plate appearances against Flaherty.
Starling Marte Player Props: Fade This Mets' Hitter Today
If we are backing Flaherty to put together a dominant performance, then a correlated outcome would be for some Mets' hitters to struggle as well. Enter Starling Marte, who will be one of two New York batters to fade in Game 5.
Marte went 0-4 in that aforementioned Game 1, which makes sense considering his history against Flaherty. Through 26 career plate appearance against the right-hander, Marte possesses a .160 batting average.
Flaherty's biggest strength is his ability to rack up strikeouts, which is also Marte's biggest weakness as a hitter. This season, Marte ranked in the bottom-half of the league in chase, whiff and strikeout rates.
Subsequently, Marte owns a 30.8% strikeout rate and 27.3% whiff rate through those 26 plate appearances against Flaherty.
Tyrone Taylor Player Props: Target This Batter vs Pitcher Matchup
The other Mets hitter to fade is Tyrone Taylor, who is 0-6 in his career against Flaherty. Like Marte, the strikeout is going to be a problem for Taylor in this matchup as he possesses 33.3% whiff and strikeout rates across those six at-bats.
Furthermore, Taylor ranked in the 24th percentile in chase rate and 39th percentile in strikeout rate this season. After failing to start in Game 4, he is projected to return to the lineup on Friday.
However, we can't overlook his recent struggles. Taylor has failed to record a hit in seven of his past nine games, posting a .091 batting average over that stretch.
