Dodgers vs. Orioles Odds
| Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
| -146 | 9 -120 / -102 | -1.5 +112 |
| Orioles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+124 | 9 -120 / -102 | +1.5 -134 |
It’s been a bit of a weird season for the Dodgers as they battle in the NL’s most competitive division. They have spent 47 days in first place, but also fell to third place just a few weeks ago.
They now appear to be clicking on all cylinders and are 16-6 over their past 21 games and back in first place.
Baltimore has also been mashing the ball, and an 8-2 record over its past 10 games has brought the Orioles within one game of the AL East lead.
Los Angeles took the first two games of this series and will look to complete the sweep on Wednesday afternoon. These offenses have been red hot, so it should be no surprise that I like the over in Wednesday's Dodgers vs. Orioles game.
Los Angeles Dodgers
Last year, Julio Urias finished third in NL Cy Young Award voting and led the NL with a 2.16 ERA. He has posted an ERA under 3.00 in back-to-back seasons, but he took a step back in the first half of this season.
Through his first 13 starts of the year, Urias has a 4.35 ERA and hasn't looked like his dominant self. He's allowed at least two runs in nine of his starts and is allowing career highs in barrel rate and hard-hit percentage.
His 3.85 xERA indicates things haven't been as bad as they appear, but Urias' fastball hasn't been effective and his changeup has been crushed. Urias has struggled to keep the ball in the yard this season and is allowing a career-high 1.79 HR/9.
We have become accustomed to the Dodgers having a lethal offense and they’re not slowing down. They rank second in the league in xwOBA and have four players in the top 30 of the league in wRC+.
If it wasn’t for Ronald Acuna Jr., Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman would be battling for the NL MVP.
Baltimore Orioles
Many of our Action Network experts have been fading Dean Kremer throughout the year. He's been a perfect combination of shaky, yet still due for even more negative regression. Through 19 starts, Kremer has a 4.59 ERA.
However, he has an extremely troubling 5.37 xERA and his indicators say that things will get worse. Kremer has allowed a .340 wOBA and a .355 xwOBA and ranks in the bottom 15% of the league in xwOBA, hard-hit percentage and average exit velocity.
He has a career low in BB/9, but that just means there are more balls in the zone being hit hard. Kremer has already served up 20 home runs and his cutter has been smoked to a .580 xSLG.
This young Orioles lineup has produced all season. They’re ninth in wOBA and wRC+ and have seven players with a wRC+ over 120. Adley Rutschman and Gunnar Henderson are the top rookies, but Anthony Santander and Austin Hays have also been fantastic.
Dodgers vs. Orioles Betting Pick
Urias posted ridiculous and unsustainable BABIP and strand rates last season. It was inevitable he'd take a step back in those categories, but it's the homer that has given him the most trouble this season.
Urias has allowed a career-high barrel rate, which has led to 14 homers in 13 games. Meanwhile, Kremer has allowed 20 home runs in 19 games. Among pitchers with at least 70 innings, Urias has the 10th-highest HR/9 and Kremer has the 15th-highest.
These offenses have been red hot. Over the past two weeks, Baltimore leads the league with a 140 wRC+ and the Dodgers rank second (138). They also rank first and fourth in scoring over that stretch.
The Orioles will be in their more favorable splits against a left-handed pitcher and the Dodgers are probably slightly better against right-handed pitchers, although they’re pretty good against anybody.
Additionally, Los Angeles is 53-36-5 to the over and Baltimore is 48-38-8 to the over. You give me two pitchers I’m low on, two red-hot offenses, and the two most profitable over teams in the league? Let’s have ourselves a Wednesday!
Pick: Dodgers vs. Orioles Over 9 |
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