The Dodgers injury depleted starting rotation looked to be a significant concern, and it has played out that way as Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Jack Flaherty, and Walker Buehler have combined to post a 10.13 ERA thus far.
Though Los Angeles is now on the brink of another highly disappointing elimination, its offensive play has been quite strong in the series, especially considering the Padres elite pitching staff. I'm banking on the Dodgers putting together another productive day at the plate with my two player props.
Nick Martin's Dodgers vs Padres Player Props for Game 4
- Dodgers to Score Over 1.5 Runs F5 Innings/Dylan Cease Over 1.5 Earned Runs
- Freddie Freeman to Record 2+ Hits (+260 Bet365, Play to +250)
Back Dodgers To Score 1.5+ Runs in F5: Plus, Time for Cease To Assert Dominance
At the time of writing most oddsmakers don't have a line up for Cease earned run prop, but backing the Dodgers to score over 1.5 runs in the first five innings is comparable and I'm happy with DraftKings price of -140.
This will be Cease's third straight start versus the Dodgers. He hasn't had many answers for the Dodgers high powered lineup in the previous two, as they have put up eight earned runs across eight and 1/3 innings. They have hit .305 in that span, hard-hit 44% of balls, and struck-out 22% of the time.
Cease wasn't really that dominant versus anybody down the stretch of the season either; he posted a 4.63 xFIP and a K-BB% of 11.9 in his final six outings of the regular season.
Since September 1st the Dodgers have hit to a wRC+ of 129 versus right-handed pitching. They rank first in BB/K in that span, and are also making a lot of hard contact (35.6% hard-hit rate).
Even at -140 I do not feel the Dodgers are favoured enough to record two or more runs in the first half of this matchup. At anything better than -150 I see value backing the Dodgers to be productive early on in this matchup.
Freddie Freeman Player Props: Back Freeman To Rack In 2+ Hits
It was unclear whether or not Freeman would be able to play in last night's game, but toughed out his ankle injury and looked fine at the plate. All four of Freeman's AB's in Tuesday's games ended in hard-hit balls, which is enough to make me interested in backing him for a productive day today considering the splits working in his favor.
By pitch value Freeman has had the most success versus fastballs and sliders this season, with 6.9 and 7.0 weighted values respectively. He holds an OPS of .905 against right-handed pitching this season, with a .302 average. His .329 BA on the road since 2022 is second only to Luis Arraez.
Freeman is 3-for-5 versus Cease in his last two starts, and that isn't overly surprising as this matchup suits his eye pretty perfectly.
At +250 I see value backing Freeman to record two hits in this game, a matchup where he could receive an extra at-bat if the Dodgers hit the way I am expecting.
