The San Diego Padres will roll out right-hander Yu Darvish for Game 5 of this NL Division Series, while the Los Angeles Dodgers will counter with Yoshinobu Yamamoto on Friday at Dodger Stadium.
I'll be targeting two player props, plus a moneyline pick, for my Padres vs Dodgers Game 5 parlay.
Dodgers vs Padres Game 5 Parlay Picks
- Yu Darvish Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-145)
- Max Muncy Under 0.5 Hits (-105)
- Padres ML (+120)
Parlay Odds: +575 (DraftKings)
Remember to bet responsibly — this is a long shot for a reason.
Padres vs Dodgers Parlay Leg 1
Yu Darvish Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-145)
After a down year in 2023, Darvish has returned to his normal self this season. Through 16 starts, the right-hander went 7-3 with a 3.31 ERA and 1.07 WHIP.
His underlying metrics were equally strong as Darvish ranked in the top half of the league in xERA, xBA, walk rate and barrel rate. Specifically, we are going to back him in the prop market as Darvish also ranked in the top half of the league in both whiff and strikeout rates.
You can currently find his strikeout prop at 4.5, a total he has surpassed in 13 of his 17 career appearances against Los Angeles.
Looking at it from the other side, this current Dodgers lineup possesses a 25.2% strikeout rate and 23.7% whiff rate through 294 combined career plate appearances against Darvish.
Padres vs Dodgers Parlay Leg 2
Max Muncy Under 0.5 Hits (-105)
We are also going to fade Los Angeles catcher Max Muncy in this matchup, which correlates well with the Darvish strikeout prop. I say this because Muncy's biggest weakness as a hitter is avoiding the punchout.
This season, he ranks in the bottom half of the league in both whiff and strikeout rates, which are two of Darvish's biggest strengths. Subsequently, Muncy possesses a .200 xBA through 42 career plate appearances against Darvish.
This lack of success makes sense considering that Muncy also possesses a 33.3% strikeout rate and 31% whiff rate against Darvish over that stretch.
Finally, Muncy has gone hitless in five of his past eight games.
Padres vs Dodgers Parlay Leg 3
Padres ML (+120)
If we are backing Darvish while simultaneously fading a Los Angeles hitter, then a correlated outcome would be for San Diego to win this game. While I do think the Dodgers should be favored, +120 is too long for a Padres team that is every bit as good as them.
Los Angeles is expected to go through a mixed bag of pitchers Friday, which leaves a lot of mystery and room for good and poor performances. The one variable we know for certain is that Darvish is pitching and that he is more than talented enough to take down this Dodgers lineup.
Meanwhile, the bullpen advantage goes to San Diego, whose relief staff outranks Los Angeles' in both FIP and xFIP.
Even if it turns into a slug fest, the Padres possess the bats necessary to keep up. Fernando Tatis Jr. has been the best hitter in this postseason, and at +120, I'm taking a shot on him and Darvish to finish the job against a Los Angeles team that I only rate marginally stronger.
