The Los Angeles Dodgers took care of business in the first game of the NLDS, securing a 7-5 win over the San Diego Padres. The Dodgers fell behind 3-0 early but quickly roared back after Shohei Ohtani’s 3-run blast tied the game up.
The Padres will have their backs up against the wall tonight, considering it is incredibly difficult to come back from a 2-0 deficit in a best-of-5 series. It’ll be Yu Darvish on the mound for the Padres and Jack Flaherty for the Dodgers.
Oddsmakers see the Padres as +120 underdogs on the moneyline, while the total is set at 8.5. I let you down yesterday with my SGP play for the Mets game, so let’s try to bounce back with my Dodgers vs. Padres Game 2 MLB parlay picks for Sunday, October 6.
John Feltman's Dodgers vs Padres MLB Picks: Parlay for Game 2
- Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 Total Bases (-105)
- Yu Darvish 5+ Strikeouts (+150)
- San Diego Padres Moneyline (+120)
Parlay Odds: +650 (DraftKings)
Remember to bet responsibly — this is a long shot for a reason.
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 Total Bases (-105)
Dodgers vs Padres, 8:03 p.m. ET
Tatis continues his hot hitting in the postseason, coming off a 2-4 night. The moment is not too big for the Padres young superstar, who seems to have fully recovered from his hip injury.
Tonight, he draws a matchup against Jack Flaherty, and he’s done excellent against him in the past. Tatis is 5-for-8 lifetime against Flaherty with three doubles and a home run.
Tatis, strangely enough, has dominated right-handed pitchers as opposed to southpaws. It’s not surprising that he hit .293 against righties during the regular season, but it is stunning that he only hit .224 against lefthanders.
Those splits are pretty lopsided, so I feel more comfortable since he should be facing a righty for the majority of the game. He’s too locked in to fade right now, and his numbers against Flaherty suggest he should be able to clear his total bases prop once again.
Yu Darvish 5+ Strikeouts (+150)
Dodgers vs Padres, 8:03 p.m. ET
Darvish is coming off an injury-riddled 2024 regular season, but tonight, he faces a Dodgers lineup that has struggled against him. Darvish finished the regular season with a 3.31 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in 82 IP.
He’s done an excellent job of limiting walks, which is critical for tonight's prop. What has burned Darvish in the past has been his inability to pitch deep into games due to a high pitch count.
The Padres are down 1-0 in the series, so I wouldn’t say it’s quite time to panic. But they may have a quick leash on Darvish if he is laboring through the early innings. But I strongly feel it won’t be the case. Darvish is still generating a high amount of chases at 31% and sports a respectable 24% strikeout rate.
His numbers against the Dodgers hitters are excellent and no fluke. In 244 plate appearances, the current Dodgers are batting .229 against Darvish with a 30% strikeout rate.
The Dodgers averaged about eight strikeouts per game as a team during the regular season, which landed them outside the bottom-18 of all MLB teams. Instead of paying a ton of juice on Darvish Over 3.5 Strikeouts, I want to shoot for 5+ punchouts at +150.
San Diego Padres Moneyline (+120)
Dodgers vs Padres, 8:03 p.m. ET
I like the matchup tonight for the Padres, and they’re far too good of a baseball team to let some Game 1 adversity bring the morale down in the clubhouse. Tonight, they face Jack Flaherty, against whom they have posted solid numbers.
Besides Tatis, the Padres are batting .279 against him as a team; three of those 19 hits are HRs. The betting public seems to be overlooking the Padres again, as only 15% of the bets are on them as of Sunday morning.
Some sharp money has started to float across the board on the moneyline, as the Dodgers line has dropped a little bit since the line opened. Typically, that tends to be a good sign for the opposite side in the grand scheme of things.
Between the Padre's overall talent and their good numbers against Flaherty, there is much to like about their offensive matchup. I also love Darvish's matchup, so we are targeting his strikeout prop.
It’s a good spot for the Padres to bounce back and even up the series, and they many people seem to be overlooking them in the betting market right now.
