With the 2024 MLB Wild Card Series in the books, it's time to turn our attention to the Division Series and Dodgers vs. Padres odds to win the NLDS, World Series and more lines.
The Dodgers opened as -140 favorites to win this National League Division Series, with the Padres as +120 underdogs. Those series winner odds have moved slightly as of Friday to Dodgers -135 and Padres +115.
Dodgers vs. Padres Division Series Odds in MLB Playoffs
| Dodgers | Padres | |
|---|---|---|
| Series Winner | -135 | +115 |
| Win in 3 | +500 | +750 |
| Win in 4 | +360 | +425 |
| Win in 5 | +330 | +450 |
Odds via DraftKings as of Friday, Oct. 4.
Dodgers vs. Padres Schedule
- Game 1: Saturday, Oct. 5 at 8:38 p.m. ET on FS1
- Game 2: Sunday, Oct. 6 at 8:03 p.m. ET on FS1
- Game 3: Tuesday, Oct. 8 on FOX/FS1 (game time TBD)
- Game 4 (if necessary): Wednesday, Oct. 9 on FOX/FS1 (game time TBD)
- Game 5 (if necessary: Friday, Oct. 11 on FOX/FS1 (game time TBD)
Dodgers NLDS Preview
Dodgers odds & ranks
- World Series Odds: +350
- Pennant Odds: +175
- Regular Season Record: 98-64
- Team wRC+: 118 (1st)
- Starting pitching xFIP: 3.98 (11th)
- Bullpen xFIP: 4.21 (23rd)
Dodgers offense
Los Angeles’ offense is stacked, but it all starts with Shohei Ohtani, who’s coming off a ludicrous 50-50 campaign — 54-59 season, to be exact — in his first season in Dodger blue. It was just another season of rewriting the record books for the future NL MVP winner.
And with the regular season in the past, we’re set to see another first: Ohtani in the playoffs. How will the two-way star fare in his first taste of October baseball? We’ll have to tune in to find out.
Ohtani, of course, is not alone as he’s flanked by a number of studs — namely, Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman.
Freeman’s status is one to monitor as we close in on the NLDS. He sprained his right ankle on Sept. 26 and sat out the final few regular-season games. The word on Wednesday was that he was “progressing.”
In all, the Dodgers possess a formidable offense that hits for power, doesn’t strike out often, works a ton of free passes and mashes both left- and right-handed pitchers. Nine of their hitters posted a wRC+ of at least 100 during the regular season.
Dodgers rotation
The Dodgers have a loaded offensive attack, but the same praise can’t be heaped on their rotation.
L.A.’s staff was befallen by injuries throughout the regular season, and it will be without Tyler Glasnow, Gavin Stone, River Ryan, Tony Gonsolin and Dustin May. Clayton Kershaw’s status is also in doubt.
So, who's left?
Well, the Dodgers still front a strong 1-2 punch with Yoshinobu Yamamoto and trade deadline acquisition Jack Flaherty.
These two have question marks, however. Yamamoto missed a good chunk of the season with triceps tightness and just returned in September. He made four starts and topped out at 79 pitches.
Flaherty, meanwhile, was shaky in his final three tuneups, allowing 10 runs on 14 hits (three homers) over 14 innings.
Behind Flaherty and Yamamoto are Walker Buehler and Landon Knack.
Buehler also spent time on the IL this season and wasn’t very good when he could pitch, with a ghastly 5.38 ERA over 75 1/3 innings — though his xFIP (4.49) and xERA (4.68) marks were significantly better.
As for Knack, he was quite serviceable, posting a 3.65 ERA over 69 innings.
Dodgers Bullpen
The Dodgers’ bullpen is significantly deeper than their rotation, featuring a number of veteran arms who are no stranger to the postseason. They have a number of right-handed flamethrowers in Evan Phillips, Daniel Hudson, Blake Treinen and Joe Kelly.
Another key weapon for manager Dave Roberts will be Michael Kopech, who struck out 29 batters and allowed just three runs over 24 innings after coming over from the White Sox.
Their left-handed options include Anthony Banda and Alex Vesia – the latter of which posted the lowest era and highest K/9 of all Dodgers relievers.
It’s worth noting that as a whole, this is the second-worst bullpen by xFIP (4.23) of all postseason teams – only the Royals (4.30) are worse.
Padres NLDS Preview
Padres odds & ranks
- World Series Odds: +600
- Pennant Odds: +290
- Regular Season Record: 93-69
- Team wRC+: 111 (6th)
- Starting Pitching xFIP: 3.99 (13th)
- Bullpen xFIP: 3.71 (3rd)
Padres offense
While the Dodgers boast an offense fronted by three perennial MVP candidates, the Padres aren’t exactly lacking in star power, either, with the likes of Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado.
Of note for Games 1 and 2 (and potentially 5): Tatis absolutely rakes at Dodger Stadium. In 34 games under the bright L.A. lights, Tatis owns a slash line of .313/.366/.626 with six home runs, 21 RBI and four steals.
Fernando Tatis owns the Dodgers
We are tied
— Padres Nation (@NationPadres) September 26, 2024
The Friars also tout nine regulars with above-average wRC+ marks, but the star supporting actors in this lineup are undoubtedly Jurickson Profar (team-high 139 wRC+), Jackson Merrill (130), Luis Arraez (111; batting champion) and Jake Cronenworth (105).
San Diego is vastly superior against right-handed pitching and luckily for them, the Dodgers feature no left-handed starters.
Padres rotation
Entering the postseason, the Padres easily had one of the best rotations in terms of quality and depth with Dylan Cease, Michael King, Joe Musgrove and Yu Darvish.
That depth is being put to a test immediately after Joe Musgrove exited his Wild Card Game 2 start with right elbow tightness. Manager Mike Shildt said Friday that Musgrove will not be on the Padres' NLDS roster.
Musgrove injury aside, the Friars still have the superior rotation on paper.
Cease delivered in his first season with San Diego, leading the staff in fWAR (4.8), K/9 (10.65), FIP (3.10), xFIP (3.44) and innings (189 1/3). The man who escaped hell with the White Sox gets the ball in NLDS Game 1.
King more than impressed in his first full campaign as a starter, taking the ball 30 times and striking out everything that moves in the process. He fanned 201 batters over 173 2/3 innings – he carried that over into the postseason with a 12-strikeout masterclass against the Braves in Wild Card Game 1.
He wasn’t too far off Cease’s marks either, with 4.0 fWAR, a 10.36 K/9, 3.27 FIP and 3.48 xFIP. King also excelled in suppressing home runs with a team-leading 0.85 HR/9 rate.
If you had to nitpick King, it’s that he doesn’t have elite fastball velocity (93.3 mph on average) and is prone to losing his command and running high pitch counts. He also doesn’t induce many grounders – though that’s mitigated by the fact that he’ll either be pitching in Petco Park or Dodger Stadium.
Last, but not least, there’s Darvish, who will once again be meeting his former squad in the playoffs.
The 38-year-old endured a rocky 2024 season, as he missed a large chunk of time for personal reasons, and when he tried to ramp up in August, he suffered a groin strain.
He didn’t look like someone who missed most of the season in September, however, posting a 3.55 ERA over 25 1/3 innings. More importantly, he topped out at 87 pitches so he appears to be stretched out in time for the postseason.
Darvish last faced the Dodgers in the 2022 NLDS, when he pitched five innings of three-run ball and tallied seven strikeouts – it was good enough to get a win on that day.
Padres Bullpen
The Padres don’t just have one of the best starting rotations in the playoffs — they also likely have the best bullpen.
The Friars fortified their 'pen in a big way at the trade deadline, acquiring Tanner Scott, Jason Adam and Bryan Hoeing.
Those three combined with All-Star closer Robert Suarez (who admittedly wasn’t great to end the season), Jeremiah Estrada and Yuki Matsui allows the Padres to potentially shorten games.
Of the remaining contenders, the Padres bullpen has the best Stuff+ (115), Pitching + (105) and botERA (3.62), plus the second-best xFIP (3.69).
— Team previews by James Lumalu
