Dodgers vs Padres Odds, Picks | Tuesday MLB Prediction
Photo by Matt Thomas/San Diego Padres/Getty Images. Pictured: Matt Waldron (Padres)
- MLB betting expert John Feltman looks over Dodgers vs Padres odds and breaks down Tuesday night's NL West rivalry matchup.
- Feltman makes a Dodgers vs Padres pick and explains his MLB moneyline prediction below.
Dodgers vs Padres Odds
| Los Angeles Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
-130 | 7.5 +105o / -125u | -1.5 +130 |
| San Diego Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
+110 | 7.5 +105o / -125u | +1.5 -155 |
The Dodgers were busy before the Tuesday MLB trade deadline, bolstering their starting rotation by acquiring Jack Flaherty from the Tigers and also adding outfielder Kevin Kiermaier from the Blue Jays. Amid the deadline madness, they travel to San Diego to take on the Padres for a two-game series at Petco Park.
It'll be Tyler Glasnow on the mound for the Dodgers, and he'll take on right-handed knuckleballer Matt Waldron — first pitch is set for 9:40 p.m. ET on MLB Network.
Dodgers vs Padres odds for Monday have the Dodgers listed as -130 moneyline favorites with an over/under of 7.5 (+105o / -125u). Check out my Dodgers vs Padres preview and betting prediction on the moneyline below.
Los Angeles Dodgers
Glasnow has had a spectacular season for the Dodgers in 2024. However, he's been roughed up a bit over the last month.
Glasnow has a 5.73 ERA in 11 innings pitched dating back to June. It's a small sample size, but it's increased his season ERA to 3.47.
The metrics for Glasnow are spectacular, which includes an xERA of 2.63. That's amongst the league's best-starting pitchers, so it's safe to say he's been on the wrong side of fortune thus far.
What's even better news for Glasnow is he's dominated these Padres hitters in the past. In a lineup without Fernando Tatis Jr. for almost six weeks, he's only allowed the other hitters on the squad to bat .135 over 52 plate appearances.
The newest Dodger, Cristian Pache, is the only offensive player with any history against Waldron, so there could be a learning curve aspect as each turn passes through the order. The Dodgers are batting .249 against right-handed pitching and .257 on the road.
It's not the toughest matchup in the world against Waldron, but he does an excellent job of limiting hard contact. Given there's no history against him, it's tough to gauge how the new-look Dodgers lineup will fair against him.
San Diego Padres
Tonight is an extremely tough matchup for the Padres' offense, which means Waldron needs to bring his good stuff to the mound. Waldron enters the start with a 3.64 ERA and 1.18 WHIP.
Digging into his metrics, his ERA is right around where it should be. Waldron has 103 strikeouts in 118 innings pitched, so he's capable of getting strikeouts when he needs to.
What he truly thrives on is his ability to limit hard contact. He's a fly-ball pitcher, but most of the contact given up is not typically squared up by opposing hitters.
It may be scary at times on Tuesday, but I believe Waldron is capable of holding the Dodgers' offense at bay as long as he can keep the ball in the ballpark.
I have no reason to believe the Padres can get through to Glasnow in the early going, but if they can keep the game close enough, they should have a decent chance of pulling out a late victory.
Besides, they're batting .274 against right-handed pitching, which is .25 points higher than their average against southpaws.
Dodgers vs. Padres
Betting Pick & Prediction
It's been a recurring theme of late, but I like the underdog Padres tonight.
Glasnow and Waldron should be able to contain both offenses, and even if the Dodgers score a couple of early runs, I don't expect the damage to be too barring.
Glasnow is due for a dominant stretch of starts, but since the Padres are a much better team against righties, I'm hesitant to back the Dodgers here.
The market is suggesting that the Padres have a fair shot at winning tonight, and we've seen a flux of sharp money come across the counter on them, despite only receiving 24% of the bets.
Although it's a tough matchup, I think the Padres can pull this one out late.
Pick: Padres Moneyline +115
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