Dodgers vs. Phillies Odds
| Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
| -112 | 9.5 -104 / -118 | -1.5 +146 |
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
| -104 | 9.5 -104 / -118 | +1.5 -178 |
The Phillies are on a run, and the Dodgers are in the midst of a cold spell. The two will clash this weekend at Citizens Bank Park in what should be a thoroughly enjoyable three-game series, beginning with a duel between two so-so starters.
Let's get into how to bet on Dodgers vs. Phillies in our preview and prediction.
Los Angeles Dodgers
L.A. was able to salvage the third game in Cincinnati on Thursday, ending a four-game losing streak. While things don't seem to be going all that badly on the surface with 20 runs scored over the last three games, Cincinnati's park coupled with some lackluster pitching is likely the cause for the uptick in production.
Regardless, Dodgers pitching has been the big issue. The staff owns a 5.61 ERA over the last two weeks of play, ranked fourth-worst in baseball, and while the bullpen has garnered most of the attention the rotation has been equally as bad.
The bullpen may actually be gearing up to turn a corner with Nick Robertson up from Triple-A and Alex Vesia seeming to find his form again.
Michael Grove will be the arm to get things started for the Dodgers, and while his results haven't been all that good with a 8.14 ERA he can at least hang his hat on a 4.19 xERA.
Grove's got some talent, ending last season as the No. 23 prospect in the Dodgers' system, and judging by his expected batting average, barrel and strikeout rates he should be right around an average big-league pitcher through five starts.
His fastball has been an issue, getting hit to the tune of a .394 average and .348 xBA, and his ground ball rate is roughly six points lower than the league average.
Philadelphia Phillies
Speaking of pitchers who have struggled, let's talk about Ranger Suarez for a second.
Friday's starter owns a 5.47 ERA through five starts and has earned every bit of it, sitting inside the bottom 4% of all pitchers with a .308 xBA. He's never been a strikeout guy as a crafty left-hander sinkerballer, but he's always found ways to get outs via contact. His ground ball rate isn't all that troublesome at 53.1%, and to his credit his sinker only has a .302 xBA versus the .364 real-life batting average we've seen against it.
An expected batting average over .300 is still very bad on your primary pitch, though, and with his struggles he's actually decided to throw the sinker a bit less this season. His hard-hit rate is also up to 37% at this point, marking the third straight season in which we've seen it rise.
Now that we've got the bad stuff out of the way, the Phillies have won five in a row and rank fifth in wRC+ over the last week. They've posted a fantastic .214 Isolated Power with a 10% walk rate, putting fear into their opponents.
Dodgers vs. Phillies Betting Pick
I'm not a big Grove guy, and I'm not a big Suarez guy either. Looking at this matchup, it's really impossible for me to say who's going to come out of it looking better.
While I'd love to side with the Phillies and their streaking offense at home, the Dodgers rank dead last in ground ball rate this season, and dead last over the last week. This couldn't be a worse matchup for Suarez, who is going to be desperately trying to keep the ball from coming back in the air.
On the other hand, the Phillies rank sixth in run value against the fastball over the last week and should present a dilemma for the young Dodgers righty.
With that, I have no choice but to bet on runs.
Pick: Over 9.5 |
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