The Dodgers are quietly beginning to heat back up after taking two of three from the Brewers over the weekend, and now they'll look to build on that form in Philly on Tuesday against the indomitable Zack Wheeler.
Around a couple of tough outings, the Cy Young hopeful has hummed along in 2024, building upon four elite seasons. He will take aim at an offense that has been less than its best over the past month despite the recent surge.
Wheeler will face off against Bobby Miller, who has faced some challenges in his second big-league season and has been used sparingly due to injury.
Will either man rise above the other here? Will the Dodgers or Phillies fall victim to their lack of lineup depth?
Let's answer both questions as we build a same-game parlayfor Dodgers vs Phillies on Tuesday.
Remember to bet responsibly — this is a long shot for a reason.
Dodgers vs. Phillies MLB Same-Game Parlay: Tuesday SGP (July 9)
- Under 9 (-108)
- Bobby Miller Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+120)
- Miguel Rojas Over 0.5 Hits (-215)
Parlay Odds: +500 (DraftKings)
Under 9 (-108)
This number has my attention.
We've got two excellent starters on the hill in Miller and Wheeler, and while oddsmakers believe that these two offer little beyond their name value, I'm not entirely as sold on that.
Yes, many like to say "Blue Circles Bad," and Miller's profile on Baseball Savant certainly offers plenty of reasons for simpletons to call him cooked. He owns a 5.44 Expected ERA and a boisterous 13.8% walk rate, doing little to get outs on contact this year and even seeing a marginal dip in his already-mediocre strikeout rate.
However, it's foolish to read anything into these numbers, given that Miller has pitched just 25 innings this season due to injury. His first outing back from injury came at the unfriendly Coors Field, where he allowed five runs over 6 1/3 innings. He followed that up with a brutal showing against the White Sox in Chicago, where he didn't make it out of the third inning.
The concerning trend in these games has been the walks — he's issued exactly three in each of those three starts. What's still yet to be determined is how poor he is on contact, however, and a ground-ball rate that remains high for a second straight year does offer some cause for optimism.
Miller's numbers improved with seemingly every start last year, and in the final three months of his rookie campaign, he rose to prominence in the strikeout category and continued to bring his expected numbers down. This season's injuries stunted some of his development, but he took his xBA down under .200 in his most recent start against the Diamondbacks, his most effective outing since being nursed to full health.
Anyway, to save some ink, I think Miller is getting very close to working himself into form if he's not done so already, and he'll draw a Phillies offense that's mustered just an 87 wRC+ over the last week of play after losing Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber to injury.
While Harper and Schwarber are expected back for this game, I doubt they'll be at full strength.
On the flip side, Wheeler's offered few reasons to doubt him, even against a Dodgers offense that has been growing in confidence lately. His ability to limit well-struck balls and walks should work wonders in suppressing LA's recent power outburst while testing their elite patience.
Bobby Miller Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+120)
We noted that the Phillies aren't quite themselves right now without two of their best three bats, and while they've struggled in general in the past week — something that should help Miller work deep into this game — strikeouts have been a particular concern.
Philly has struck out in over 27% of its plate appearances in the last seven days, and as a result, five of the previous six starters to face them have struck out six or more batters. The only man who went under that total was Max Fried, a pitcher with a rocky history against the Phillies, who had to face plenty of batters with success against him in their careers.
Miller may have just one stunning strikeout performance, which came in his first start of the season. But, as noted, he continued to grow in this area as his rookie year went on. With his game beginning to take shape, he should have a very fair chance of hitting this alternative line against a strikeout-happy Phillies team.
Miguel Rojas Over 0.5 Hits (-215)
I'll mix in an offensive prop to get our odds into an attractive place, opting for a master of contact in Miguel Rojas.
The utility infielder has become one of the Dodgers' most important players and has hit .359 over his last 11 games, picking up a hit in all but three of those contests. He also owns nine hits in 30 career at-bats against Wheeler, hitting .300 with a .300 xBA to back up those results.
I don't envision many hitters going for extra bases off Wheeler, and I doubt this depleted Phillies offense. Freddie Freeman (-300) is a safer alternative to Rojas if you're looking for someone else to pick up a hit, but it's worth noting that while he owns 21 hits against Wheeler for a .412 career average, just six of them have been for extra bases.
So, you probably would want to skip the total bases with him. I like the discount on a player a bit further down the lineup who should get the ball back into play with similarly good career numbers.
