Dodgers vs Phillies Picks | Tuesday MLB Odds & Prediction
Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images. Pictured: Zack Wheeler
Los Angeles Dodgers vs Philadelphia Phillies Odds
| Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+1.5 -155 | 9 -118o / -102u | +136 |
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-1.5 +130 | 9 -118o / -102u | -162 |
Let's dive into the MLB odds and get into a Dodgers vs Phillies prediction in our Tuesday MLB betting preview for July 9.
Dodgers vs Phillies odds for Tuesday are on the move as the Phillies are -162 moneyline favorites with an over/under of 9 (-118o / -102u) for the series opener at Citizens Bank Park. For my Dodgers vs Phillies pick, I'll be looking at a different market — I see value on Philadelphia's run line (-1.5).
Right-hander Zack Wheeler takes the mound for Philadelphia, while Los Angeles hands the ball to right-hander Bobby Miller.
See how I think Dodgers vs Phillies will play out in my Tuesday MLB betting preview below.
Los Angeles Dodgers
It's still early, but it surely is looking like the classic "sophomore slump" for Miller. He possesses a fade-worthy 6.12 ERA and 1.60 WHIP through his first six starts this season.
While that is not a massive sample size, his underlying metrics suggest that positive regression is highly unlikely. Although the former first round pick does not officially qualify, Miller would rank in the bottom half of the league in xERA, xBA, average exit velocity, walk rate, barrel rate and hard-hit rate.
Following the right-hander is a bullpen that is due for regression. Despite ranking fourth in ERA, Los Angeles' relief staff ranks 20th in FIP and 22nd in xFIP.
Philadelphia Phillies
Meanwhile, Wheeler is currently the front-runner to win the NL Cy Young. He is 9-4 with a commanding 2.74 ERA and 0.99 WHIP.
Wheeler's been particularly dialed in recently, surrendering two or fewer runs in three consecutive starts. He boasts a 2.29 ERA and 0.92 WHIP over that stretch.
Philadelphia won two of those three games, with each of those two wins coming by at least a two-run margin.
The right-hander's analytics suggest that regression is not a concern. He ranks in the 87th percentile or higher in xERA, xBA, average exit velocity and hard-hit rate.
While Los Angeles' lineup is keeping the Phillies' price low, Wheeler can handle the assignment. He is 2-0 against the Dodgers over the past four meetings with a 2.49 ERA and 1.07 WHIP.
Following Wheeler is arguably the league's best bullpen. Philadelphia's relief staff ranks first in both FIP and xFIP.
Dodgers vs. Phillies
Betting Pick & Prediction
At +145, it's worth taking a shot on the Phillies to win this game by at least two runs. The hitting matchup is a wash, considering that both teams rank in the top seven of the league in runs scored per game, hits per game, BA, OBP, SLG, OPS and home runs.
If the hitting cancels out, then Philadelphia should have no issue taking care of business. Wheeler outranks Miller in ERA, WHIP, xERA, xBA, average exit velocity, strikeout rate, walk rate, barrel rate and hard-hit rate.
The Phillies' bullpen also outranks Los Angeles' in both FIP and xFIP. Finally, 22 of Philadelphia's past 25 wins have come by at least a two-run margin.
Pick: Phillies -1.5 (+145 at bet365 | Play to +140)
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