Dodgers vs Phillies Odds & Prediction | Thursday Betting Preview
| Los Angeles Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
+130 | 9.5 -105O / -115U | +1.5 -146 |
| Philadelphia Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
-155 | 9.5 -105O / -115U | -1.5 +122 |
The Philadelphia Phillies will host the Los Angeles Dodgers again on Thursday night as they go for the three-game sweep. Philadelphia dominated game one of the series 10-1 and edged out a close victory on Wednesday night by a score of 4-3.
These two teams have the best records in the National League, but the Phillies have had the upper hand in the season series to this point. They are now 60-32 on the season with an 8.5-game lead in the division and a 5.5-game lead over the Dodgers for the top seed in the NL.
Los Angeles (55-38) still clings to a 7.5-game lead in the NL West despite the recent slide. The Dodgers are 4-6 over their last 10 games, but so are the second-place Padres.
The Phillies are the favorites to complete the sweep tonight at -160 on the moneyline with Aaron Nola on the mound. This game also has an over/under of 9.5 runs (+102o / -124u).
Find my Dodgers vs Phillies prediction and MLB betting preview for Thursday, July 11, below.
Los Angeles Dodgers
Landon Knack will make his eighth start in the majors tonight. The 26-year-old has thrown 34.2 innings this season with a 2.86 ERA, but he also owns a 4.18 xERA and 4.12 SIERA. Knack has been extraordinarily lucky while stranding 95.4% of his baserunners and allowing only a .200 BABIP.
This low BABIP may make you think that there is some skill in it, but Knack is allowing a second percentile Hard-hit Rate, sixth percentile Barrel Rate and first percentile Exit Velocity. He’s also not keeping this hard contact on the ground as he has just a 30.0% Ground-ball Rate (fifth percentile).
Knack has a 39th percentile Whiff Rate and 49th percentile Strikeout Rate. He has struck out just 31 batters in 34.2 IP. His main strength is that he hasn’t issued many walks, posting a 6.5% Walk Rate that ranks in the 72nd percentile.
The Dodgers have had one of the best offenses in baseball to this point. They rank first in wRC+ and wOBA this season. They are also first in OBP, second in ISO, second in SLG and second in Walk Rate.
Los Angeles ranks fourth in Hard-hit Rate, fifth in Barrel Rate and fifth in Exit Velocity. Because of these strong contact-quality metrics, the Dodgers rank third in xwOBACON.
Philadelphia Phillies
Aaron Nola will take the hill for the Phillies tonight. The veteran starter has a 3.48 ERA, 3.43 xERA and 3.57 SIERA this season. These are all relatively in line with Nola’s career numbers as he’s having another solid season.
Through 113.2 IP, Nola has recorded 121 strikeouts this season. He has a 38th percentile Whiff Rate and 59th percentile Strikeout Rate, but an 89th percentile Chase Rate. Nola ranks 28th out of 66 qualifying starters in Stuff+, fourth in Location+ and 15th in Pitching+.
Nola has just a 5.6% Walk Rate this season and also is above average at limiting quality contact, ranking in the 66th percentile in Hard-hit Rate, 71st percentile in Barrel Rate and 65th percentile in Average Exit Velocity. He does get the ball on the ground 45% of the time as well, which ranks in the 62nd percentile.
The Phillies’ offense hasn’t been too bad themselves as they have consistently gotten on base while also hitting for power. They rank seventh in wRC+ and fifth in wOBA. They have the third-best OBP and fifth-best SLG this year while ranking seventh in Walk Rate.
Philadelphia ranks 10th in Hard-hit Rate, 13th in Barrel Rate and 18th in Exit Velocity. The Phillies have outperformed these contact metrics by ranking fifth in Line-drive Rate and third in BABIP.
Dodgers vs. Phillies
Betting Pick & Prediction
The Dodgers have an elite offense this season, but they will run into a tough matchup with Aaron Nola on Thursday night. This should be a heavyweight battle in the top half of the frame.
On the other side, the Phillies have seemingly gotten a little lucky this season as they have outperformed their batted-ball numbers but have remained as a top-10 offense by most accounts. Knack has gotten decent results to this point in the season, but his peripheral stats make it hard to trust him as his house of cards could come crashing down at any time.
I trust Nola much more than Knack in this matchup and will be looking to fade the rookie. My favorite bet on this game is the Phillies -0.5 in the first five innings at -110 as I think the pitching advantage will likely give them an early lead.
