Dodgers vs Red Sox Odds & Predictions | Sunday Night Baseball Preview
| Los Angeles Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line (Spread) |
-110 | 9 +100o / -120u | +1.5 -205 |
| Boston Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line (Spread) |
-110 | 9 +100o / -120u | -1.5 +170 |
After a couple of nail-biting wins, the Dodgers will take center stage on Sunday Night Baseball to close out the weekend and aim for a sweep of the Red Sox at Dodger Stadium.
After stumbling to the All-Star break, L.A. has looked like a different team to begin the second half of the season while Boston has failed to find the same form it had early in the month. Things could certainly swing back the other way here, however, with a struggling James Paxton taking the hill against the competent Kutter Crawford.
Can the Red Sox turn it around and improve to 4-0 on Sunday Night Baseball this year? Let's break down the latest MLB odds and make a Dodgers vs Red Sox moneyline prediction for tonight.
Los Angeles Dodgers
It hasn't been the cleanest month for the Dodgers, who even after two wins this weekend are just 6-8 in July. They sit 12th in wRC+ during this time, but over the past 10 games sit a bit further down in 16th. Their isolated power (ISO) sits at just .160 during this time, about 20 points off their season average, strikeouts are up and hits have been hard to come by.
Los Angeles has continued to walk at a high clip, but the lack of balls in play has been somewhat concerning. With that being said, the Dodgers found six extra-base hits — two of which left the yard — in Saturday's 7-6 win. It came after a miserable night at the plate on Friday which was salvaged by a grand slam off the bat of Freddie Freeman, but it was encouraging nonetheless.
This team will likely need to cross the plate early and often with James Paxton taking the ball on Sunday. The big lefty hasn't exactly been great in his 17 starts this season, pitching to a 4.38 ERA, and while there was a brief period in June where he seemed to find some success in limiting walks and generating swings and misses, it seems like a distant memory with the way he's worked in his last three starts.
Paxton has been something of a machine when it comes to allowing baserunners, pushing his walk rate up to a bloated 12% to go along with a .259 expected batting average, and his strikeout rate has fallen from 24.6% a season ago to just 15.6% this year.
While there were some reasons to believe in Paxton this year after he posted a 3.77 expected ERA in 2023, struggling only in the xSLG department, the bright spots have been hard to find this season. He's transformed into a contact-oriented pitcher who's yielded a ton of fly balls and struggled with control — two things that generally don't happen with those types.
Boston Red Sox
On the hill for Boston is Crawford, who's no stranger to Sunday Night Baseball. He's worked twice on this stage this year, beating the Yankees both times, and in doing so he's allowed just eight baserunners and three earned runs over 13 innings with 13 strikeouts.
Crawford's season as a whole has been exceptional. He owns a polished 3.04 ERA, pitching well to fly balls and has once again pitched under the league average in hard-hit rate. He rarely allows walks and owns a .230 xBA, with a .411 xSLG being the lone sore spot — which makes sense given the batted ball profile.
With another solid showing in the strikeout department, however, this hasn't seemed to hurt the right-hander — and he'll be facing a Dodgers offense on Sunday that's not only been striking out at a surprising clip lately, but has struggled to find power with Saturday's game being the exception.
Offensively, Boston is back to raking after a brief cold spell in late June. They rank ninth in wRC+ this month, and while strikeouts are still of particular concern, they've more than made up for the lack of consistent contact with a .194 ISO. This isn't a team that likes to take many walks, but as we've covered above, the man taking the ball for L.A. has owned an incredibly hittable arsenal.
Dodgers vs. Red Sox
Betting Pick & Prediction
You'd expect the Red Sox to get more respect here, even on the road, but the Dodgers have won both of their games to begin the second half and performed well enough over the course of the season to influence oddsmakers to favor them.
Shockingly, I'm in disagreement. I'm simply not seeing the same play out of this team that we saw for spurts in the first half, and Paxton should make the task at hand quite arduous given the way he's been running.
Boston has struggled against lefties, sitting 20th in wRC+, but I'm not sure that matters much given Paxton's struggles in the xSLG department. This is a Red Sox offense that has slugged a significant amount for the better part of two months and has really only been victimized by the strikeout.
Paxton's whiff rate sits at just 13.2% in July, marking his worst month of the year which says a lot given he's in the 15th percentile in swings and misses. That should give aid to a Boston offense which ranks sixth in swinging strike rate and has found a way to put up runs in spite of its shortcomings in making contact.
Crawford, meanwhile, has been excellent around his .411 xSLG, and he'll meet a Dodgers team which is starving for the power numbers they posted in the early months of the season. I expect him to show up once again on Sunday Night Baseball and keep Boston's undefeated record in these games alive.
Pick: Red Sox ML (+105)
