Dodgers vs. White Sox Odds
| Dodgers Odds | -124 |
| White Sox Odds | +106 |
| Over/Under | 8.5 |
| Time | 8:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | TBS |
I’m not sure if any team has been more disappointing through the first two months of the MLB season than the Chicago White Sox. Their preseason win total was set at 91.5, and at -200 to win the AL Central, they were the biggest division favorite in the league.
Instead, they are on pace for just 78 wins and currently sit third in the AL Central, five games out of first place. They have a 25-27 record, but their expected win-loss record is even worse at 20-32. Their -56 run differential is the fourth worst in the entire American League.
For the Dodgers, it has been pretty much business as usual. They sit 35-19 (third in the league) and have the best run differential in MLB by more than 10 runs. They are just 5-5 over their last 10 games after being swept by the Pirates and splitting a series against the Mets.
Before the season, this series was probably circled as a potential World Series preview. Only one team has looked the part so far, though.
If Chicago wants to have a chance to make a run, it's going to need to start playing up to expectations soon.
Place Your Bet(ts) on Dodgers' Offense
With Dustin May, Andrew Heaney and Clayton Kershaw all on the injured list, Mitch White will make his fourth spot start of the season. White started the year in the bullpen for L.A., but has made three starts, allowing six runs in 11 1/3 innings.
White sits in the bottom 25% of the league in xERA and xwOBA. His slider has been good, but teams have a .456 xwOBA against his fastball. In his last outing, he did allow three runs, but set a career-high with seven strikeouts.
I’m sure it comes as shocking news that the Dodgers absolutely mash the ball. They lead the league in runs and wOBA, and also have the highest walk rate and slugging percentage.
No player in the league is hotter than Mookie Betts right now. Over the last month, he's batting .342 with an OPS of 1.117. He has six home runs in the last two weeks and now leads the league in WAR. He's currently the betting favorite for NL MVP.
Injuries to Blame For White Sox's Slow Start?
26-year-old Michael Kopech looked nearly unhittable for the first eight starts of this season — he had a 1.29 ERA through the end of May. Then, he raised his ERA almost a full run (to 2.20) after a five earned run blow up in Toronto his last time out.
As terrific as Kopech has been, the negative regression was bound to come. He has a 3.48 xERA and 4.67 xFIP, and his xwOBA of .310 is much higher than his .234 wOBA. His slider is nasty, but his fastball can be hit hard at times.
Injuries have really hurt the White Sox all season, and they are currently without Tim Anderson and Eloy Jimenez. Yoan Moncada, AJ Pollock, Andrew Vaughn and Luis Robert have all had stints on the injured list, as well.
While it’s easy to blame injuries, Chicago still ranks 27th in runs scored and 28th in wOBA this season. Anderson and Vaughn are the only players with a wOBA over .350 and a wRC+ over 130.
Dodgers-White Sox Pick
I understand White isn’t exactly a household name or somebody who is going to be competing for a Cy Young anytime soon. Kopech, on the other hand, might be.
However, Kopech has an xFIP of 4.67, more than two full runs more than his ERA. As we saw in his last start, negative regression is likely headed his way a bit.
He ranks in the bottom half of the league in HardHit% and bottom 12% of the league in walk rate, allowing 4.6 BB/9. That's a bad recipe against a Dodgers team that ranks fourth in hard contact rate and walks more than any team in the league.
The White Sox are just 6-14 this season as underdogs. Only four teams in the league have been worse as a dog, and they are just 1-7 when they're an underdog of less than -130
Meanwhile, the current price (-124) is the cheapest the Dodgers have been all season. Their previous low was -134 in a game they won 5-1 over the Braves. Los Angeles has only been priced below -145 seven times this season and is 5-2 in those games.
Sure, Chicago has the starting pitcher advantage here, but the Dodgers' lineup is capable of scoring against anybody. The White Sox are still being priced closer to their preseason expectations than current form, so I’ll take the discounted price on Los Angeles here.
Pick: Los Angeles ML (-124 | Play to -130)
